Stock Watch

August 11, 2008

BY CHRIS STARBONELL
UPDATE! Writer

Every week UPDATE! will be putting together a list of note-worthy performances or events that have transpired in baseball. We’ll let you know what to get excited or nervous about while also providing fantasy insight.

BULLISH

EDDIE GUARDADO, Texas Rangers, RP
Comment: Everyday Eddie is back closing games and fantasy owners looking for saves without the bloated ERA and WHIP ratios should look no further than Guardado. With C.J. Wilson on the disabled list with bone spurs in his elbow, Guardado will assume ninth-inning duties for Texas. Over his last 9 appearances, the 37-year old reliever has a 1.04 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 6 strikeouts in 8.2 innings. He’s probably going to get overlooked in some leagues as his age and the perception that the Rangers’ style of play (lots of offense, little pitching help) will generate limited save opportunities. Yet as of today, the Rangers bullpen has notched 29 saves (a number that would obviously be higher if not for their bullpen bungling in critical spots). If you’re in need of saves, Guardado is a cheap source.

CLAYTON KERSHAW, Los Angeles Dodgers, SP
Comment: While his first call-up to the big-leagues this season bordered between disappointing and disastrous, Kershaw’s second shot in the majors has been far more successful. Sure his first start upon his return was disastrous, when he allowed 5 earned runs in 3 innings at Coors Field, but since then, Kershaw has been a different pitcher. Over his last three starts, Kershaw owns a 0.47 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, signs that he may be coming around. Now it should be kept in mind that two of these starts came against light-hitting clubs (Arizona and Washington) and his control might still be an issue as evident by his four walks issued to the Cardinals on Thursday, but Kershaw looks like he might be starting to live up to his hype. Start him in all formats for the time being.

LASTINGS MILLEDGE, Washington Nationals, OF
Comment: Before hitting the disabled list, it looked like Lastings Milledge was just another top-flight hitting prospect who never lived up to his billing. But lately, Milledge has been doing just about everything in his power to help the Nats win some ball games. Over his past 10 games, Milledge is batting .415, with 5 homers, 9 RBI, 8 runs and 2 stolen bases over that span. While he’s this hot, Milledge deserves to start in most fantasy leagues so feel free to keep him active or add him if he’s available. He may prove to be an invaluable asset down the stretch.

BRANDON MORROW, Seattle Mariners, RP
Comment: Are the Mariners actually starting to get a clue? Seattle finally did the right thing with prized arm Brandon Morrow and optioned him to Triple-A this past week to stretch him out and begin the process of converting him to a starter. While his numbers in relief have been outstanding (1-2, 10 saves, 1.47 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 47 strikeouts in 36.2 innings this year), the guy’s got top-of-the-rotation stuff and will be of much greater use to Seattle as a starter so that they don’t have to trot out the likes of Carlos Silva and Miguel Batista. He may only get 5-7 starts this year when he does return, but fantasy owners with the roster flexibility will want to keep him stashed away as he could be a big boost to your pitching staff in September.

BEARISH

RYAN BRAUN, Milwaukee Brewers, OF
Comment: Easily a cornerstone player on any fantasy team that owns him, Ryan Braun has been a beast this season. Unfortunately, those of you that roster him may be feeling the pain for the rest of 2008. Braun left Saturday’s game with what appeared to be back issues, but now we know that he’s dealing with spasms on both sides of his ribcage. The most troubling aspect of this injury is Braun’s reaction to it, “Whenever you experience or feel something that you haven’t felt before, it’s obviously a little bit scary.” When he first felt the discomfort, Braun stated he could not even breathe and yesterday he could not swing a bat. Fantasy owners have no choice but to hold onto him and hope for the best, but this sounds like trouble.

CHRIS CARPENTER, St. Louis Cardinals, SP
Comment: Poor Chris Carpenter. He spends over a year rehabbing from Tommy John Surgery and just when it looks like he is poised to pick up his innings, he leaves Sunday’s game against the Cubs in the sixth inning strained right triceps. Before leaving the contest, he had a 1.88 ERA in his three starts. While this injury has nothing to do with his surgically repaired elbow, fantasy owners should still be worried. Any additional arm ailment afflicting a pitcher coming back from Tommy John Surgery cannot be good and the Cardinals will no doubt play it safe with the 2005 NL Cy Young. Keep him benched this week, but if he has to miss any significant time, mixed leaguers may be forced to drop Carpenter.

JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER, Oakland Athletics, SP
Comment: While he still has a real shot at winning the AL Cy Young award and still leads all of baseball in ERA, the wheels may be starting to fall off on the Justin Duchscherer ride. Over his last three starts, he’s gone 0-2 with a 6.88 ERA and 2.06 WHIP. He’s never pitched this many innings in his major-league career and the workload could be setting him up for bumpy roads ahead. If the trade deadline in your league has yet to pass, it may be wise to aggressively shop Duchscherer in a package deal to try to get what you can for him before his value starts to really drop.

KOSUKE FUKUDOME, Chicago Cubs, OF
Comment: He started off his inaugural MLB season as a cult hero in Chicago, stepping up as a vital piece of the Cubs’ early success in 2008. Yet as the season has wore on, Fukudome’s offensive contributions have slipped considerably and now his playing time may be in jeopardy. Manager Lou Piniella has stated that if the Japanese import continues to struggle at the plate, he will have to look at other options to steal at-bats, spelling certain doom for Fukudome’s fantasy prospects if he can’t get his act together. Should he start entering platoon territory, you should have no reservations cutting ties with him altogether as, this late in the season, dead weight on a fantasy roster could be the difference between being a champion or an also-ran.

BUST

CLAY BUCHHOLZ, Boston Red Sox, SP
Comment: Once considered an outstanding sleeper pick for fantasy leagues, Buchholz has endured a nightmarish 2008. While his curve-ball is still impressive, he’s had plenty of trouble getting major-league hitters out this season. His 6.32 ERA and 1.73 WHIP would not be numbers accepted by fantasy owners for virtually every other pitcher, so why should Buchholz get any special treatment? At this time of the year, you should not feel obligated to hold onto him unless you are in a keeper league. Feel free to toss him on the waiver wire heap.

CHUCK JAMES, Atlanta Braves, SP
Comment: Once upon a time (2006 to be exact) Chuck James looked on the verge of becoming a legitimate no. 3 starter for fantasy teams, capable of providing solid all-around numbers as a great source of pitching depth. But shoulder problems have derailed a once-promising career for the Braves pitcher. Since the start of 2007, James has sported a 13-15 record with a 4.99 ERA and a staggering 42 homers allowed in 191 innings pitched. Until he has surgery to get this shoulder straightened out, there is no reason to have faith. Those of you who took a flier on him upon hearing he was returning to the big leagues should have no qualms releasing James.

JASON VARITEK, Boston Red Sox, C

Comment: Varitek batted ninth over the weekend for the first time this year and while he was once a fantasy stalwart at the backstop position in years past, it is time to ignore him in all leagues. He’s hitting just .219 in 2008 with a measley .308 OBP and while his defense and pitch handling skills have remained impressive, his numbers at the plate are hard to stomach. Varitek has suffered through arguably the worst offensive campaign of his career, but while manager Terry Francona and Red Sox Nation stand firmly behind their beloved captain, fantasy owners have hopefully seen that this guy just does not cut it anymore. He’s probably not on anyone’s roster, but do not even feel the need to spot-start him, he’s going to do more harm than good.

C.J. WILSON, Texas Rangers, RP

Comment: As if suffering a fair share of mound implosions in 2008 was not enough, Wilson had the nerve to undermine his manager, Ron Washington, by casually flipping the ball in the air to him when he was pulled from yet another rough outing Tuesday against New York. He then hit the disabled list immediately after the game and is likely not going to be seen again this year. He owns a 6.02 ERA this season, his teammates are peeved at him, his manager looked like he wanted to sock him and fantasy owners that bought into Wilson are hurling expletives at their computer screen. If this guy isn’t a bust, nobody is.

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Stock Watch

August 4, 2008

BY CHRIS STARBONELL
UPDATE! Writer

BULLISH

BOBBY ABREU, New York Yankees, OF
Comment: Once the second-half kicked off, Bobby Abreu finally found his swing. Over his past 16 games, Abreu has hit .387 with 5 homers, 17 RBI and 20 runs. He had huge numbers after the All-Star break last year as the Yankees surged in the standings: .305 AVG, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 64 R, 13 SB in 282 at-bats. If his team begins to hit, the veteran outfielder may be on the cusp of a monster tear. You aren’t going to get him on the cheap in a trade, but that does not mean that you cannot obtain him for a reasonable rate. He’s got five-tool gifts and if he plays close to how he did in the second-half of last season, he will go from a no. 2 to a no.1 outfielder the rest of the way.

EMILIO BONIFACIO, Washington Nationals, 2B
Comment: After hitting .452 and swiping 4 bases in his first 8 games with Washington’s Triple-A Columbus Clippers, Bonifacio was called up to be the starting second baseman for the Nationals. Purging their roster of veteran players in favor of young talent, Washington wasted no time giving Bonifacio big-league responsibilities, batting him first in all three of his games. During the Nats’ series against Cincinnati, he went 5-for-13 with 2 runs scored and a steal in two attempts. His wheels are the main reason to keep your eye on Bonifacio, he stole 102 bases in Arizona’s minor-league system in his previous two seasons. If he can hold his own in the majors, Bonifacio can be a nice source of cheap steals for fantasy owners. NL-only leaguers may want to buy in now if they are desperate for swiped bags.

EDDIE KUNZ, New York Mets, RP
Comment: The future for Billy Wagner this season is cloudy, but his loss could mean major gains for whoever lands wild-card Eddie Kunz. The 22-year old reliever notched 27 saves with a 2.79 ERA in 48.1 Double- A innings. He was called up by the Mets over the weekend and should he inherit the closer’s role, Kunz would be a great source of saves on the revived Mets squad. He features a heavy sinker that he can throw in the mid-to-high 90s and a slider that has looked nasty at times. Mets manager Jerry Manuel has a bevy of closing options in his bullpen, but has maintained defined roles for his current relief corps since he took over the team, meaning he may choose to put Kunz in the ninth-inning seat in order to keep his other hurlers in their respective spots. Should he get end up in the closer’s chair, Kunz could be fantasy gold for the remainder of the season.

BRAD PENNY, Los Angeles Dodgers, SP
Comment: Penny is due to start this Friday against the Giants, his first appearance since hitting the disabled list with an injured shoulder in June. A lot of you may feel the need to add him, if he’s even available on the waiver wire at this moment. However, fantasy owners investing in Penny should temper their expectations. Before hitting the DL, he was 5-9 over 15 starts with a 5.88 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He’s also historically mediocre after the All-Star break for his career, pitching to a 33-32 record with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.34 ERA. In deeper leagues, I can’t really blame you for adding him as he was throwing gas in his Triple-A rehab start on Saturday and is joining a seemingly revitalized LA team. Just don’t pin your team’s hopes on Penny becoming a no. 1 pitcher for the rest of 2008.

BEARISH

JOSH BECKETT, Boston Red Sox, SP
Comment: With a disastrous start Wednesday against Los Angeles, Beckett fell to 9-8 on the season with a pedestrian 4.15 ERA. Over his last 4 starts, Beckett has gone 1-3, sporting a 6.04 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Because of this, last-year’s CY Young runner-up makes a great trade target. His fantasy owners could be worried that he may be reverting to the Josh Beckett of 2006, the one who took home a 5.01 ERA for the season and gave up 36 bombs over 204.2 innings. Now might be a good time to put out a feeler to the manager that owns him in your league to see if he’s willing to sell on Beckett and jump at the opportunity if a discount presents itself. He’s a clutch pitcher who is going to have his share of big-game opportunities as the AL East division race heats up, making him an excellent candidate to close out the season in explosive fashion.

MILTON BRADLEY, Texas Rangers, DH
Comment: After not playing in Sunday’s game, Bradley made it four straight missed contests thanks to a strained left quad. He’s having a career year in Texas, hitting .320 with 19 home runs, 60 RBI and 60 runs scored. Despite the strong campaign, this injury raises a huge red flag as Bradley has a history of being quite brittle, evident by the fact that he has failed to play in more than 100 games in 7 of his 9 years of major-league service. You probably are not going to get much for Bradley considering the injury-risk he carries, so you are better off riding this one out unless a reasonable deal comes your way. Make sure you have an extra-outfielder handy, because a DL stint and extended stay on the shelf may force your hand into dropping Bradley.

JOHN MAINE, New York Mets, SP
Comment: John Maine hit the disabled list on Sunday retroactive to July 29^th with a rotator cuff strain, so how should his fantasy owners feel? If you listen to Maine, the move is not a big deal as he believes, “I’m more than capable of pitching anytime this week…There’s no setback or anything like that.” The Mets called up Eddie Kunz to replace him on the roster, a move they needed to make for insurance in the bullpen in case Billy Wagner has to miss time. But Maine’s strained rotator cuff may not be completely behind him and fantasy owners may want to make contingency plans in case Maine’s shoulder becomes an issue for the rest of the season. In fact, it may be best to move Maine now while the view on him is optimistic, particularly if you have a trade deadline in your league and can’t afford to gamble on a potentially questionable arm.

SHAUN MARCUM, Toronto Blue Jays, SP
Comment: What’s going on with Shaun Marcum? Prior to falling prey to a strained elbow, Marcum owned sparkling pitching ratios, cruising with a 2.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 15 starts. Since coming off the DL, however, Marcum has been a disaster on the mound. In his three starts since returning to the Blue Jays rotation, he’s gone 0-1, sporting an 8.73ERA, 1.91 WHIP in 14.2 innings. The most alarming trend for Marcum, however, is the 7 homers allowed over his last four starts. In his first 14 games, he had only served up 9 bombs total. You can’t really drop Marcum unless you are in a shallow league as his pre-disabled list numbers had him amongst the cream of the fantasy crop. A benching for his next start is in order and fantasy owners just have to hope he regains his form.

BUST

SANTIAGO CASILLA, Oakland Athletics, RP
Comment: Once thought to be the successor to Huston Street if there was a vacancy for the closer’s role, Casilla has been a puzzling player since coming off the DL. In 14 innings of relief since returning from an elbow strain, Casilla features a 5.74 ERA and 1.93 WHIP. While it is fair to note that he has allowed no runs in his last 6 appearances, his stock in Oakland’s bullpen has taken a tumble as Brad Ziegler and Jerry Blevins have both shot ahead of him in key spots. With Huston Street stumbling (read below), Casilla may have been a waiver wire treasure, now he’s just a useless middle reliever.

KHALIL GREENE, San Diego Padres, SS
Comment: Greene was never going to win a batting title, but you could stomach a .250 batting average so long as he was hitting homers and driving in runners. This season, though, has been an absolute disaster. Batting .213 with just 10 bombs in 105 games, things looked as if they could not get any more embarrassing for Greene. That is until he punched a wall in the tunnel near the team’s dugout, fracturing his hand and probably sidelining him for the rest of the season. There were rumblings that the Padres were considering parting ways with Greene after this season. You can’t blame them. Last season when he was hitting .254, Greene at least came through in the clutch with a .284 batting average with runners in scoring position. This year he’s batting just .145 in those spots. Ignore Greene for the foreseeable future as he may not be cut out for everyday duties in the majors.

DARRELL RASNER, New York Yankees, SP
Comment: When Rasner strung together four straight quality starts to begin his 2008 campaign; some folks thought he could be a back-of-the-rotation savior for a staff that sorely needed pitching depth. Not so fast. Since the start of June, Rasner has gone 2-7 with a horrific 6.77 ERA in 11 starts. Simply put, the guy does not look like someone who belongs in the big-leagues as anything more than a spot starter or long reliever. You have to imagine the Yankees are going to bring up another minor-league arm in the near future as it has come to the point that New York’s offense has to be in game-saving mode anytime Rasner is on the mound. Pay no attention to him in fantasy leagues.

HUSTON STREET, Oakland Athletics, RP
Comment: Word around the league is that GM Billy Beane opted to hold onto Street at the trade deadline as he felt as the A’s reliever would have more valuable to move in the off-season rather than mid-season. Lately, however, Street has been wildly inconsistent. Since July 12^th, Street has blown 2 saves and has taken 2 losses with a 5.19 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. Because of his struggles, manager Bob Geren has stated that he will lean on a closer-by-committee approach that will be dependent on match-ups. The A’s have lost 9 of their last 10 games and a closer carousel on a team that is falling fast should be a situation that all but the most desperate of fantasy owners should avoid.

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Stock Watch

July 28, 2008

BULLISH

CONOR JACKSON, Arizona Diamondbacks, OF
Comment: After hitting just 2 home runs total in May and June, watching his batting average drop from .348 at the end of April to .308 entering July, Conor Jackson has gone on an offensive tear. He’s swatted 4 bombs in his last 8 games and is hitting at a .514 clip since the All-Star break with 8 RBI and 13 runs in 9 contests. Jackson showed early in the season that he was capable of putting up monster numbers, but a couple of nagging injuries helped slow him down. He could become one of the better offensive outfielders in fantasy for the remainder of the season and if he’s not owned in your league, pick him up immediately. Those of you without that luxury should put a feeler out to the guy that owns Jackson to see if he can be had a decent price.

OLIVER PEREZ, New York Mets, SP
Comment: Perhaps realizing he is in a contract year, Oliver Perez has been an unstoppable force lately. Over his last 5 starts, the often-erratic southpaw has gone just 1-1, but has posted a 1.34 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 39 whiffs in 33.2 innings pitched. He has not faced soft lineups in these starts either, seeing the Phillies (twice), Yankees and surging Rockies. Perez has long had the stuff of a major-league ace, but his command issues and knack for imploding on the mound have left many wondering if he could ever be a consistently successful pitcher in the big leagues. Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen worked with Perez on his mechanics, which may explain the turnaround. Whatever the reason, Perez has emerged as a strong starting pitching option for fantasy teams.

FERNANDO RODNEY, Detroit Tigers, RP
Comment: It seemed inevitable that Todd Jones was going to lose the closer’s gig at some point this season. What was not expected, however, was that Rodney would be the one taking over ninth-inning duties instead of fire-baller Joel Zumaya. Sunday, in his first relief appearance since being named the closer, Rodney pitched 1.2 innings (due to a triceps injury to Zumaya that forced him out of the game early), giving up an earned run and allowing two walks and a hit while striking out three batters. Whoever is closing games for the Tigers could be in for a lot of save opportunities down the stretch as the team has picked up their play and could make a run for a post-season spot. If Rodney holds onto the role, he could be a valuable no. 2 closer for the rest of the season. Monitor this situation closely though as a couple of poor outings for Rodney could lead to another closer change.

ANIBAL SANCHEZ, Florida Marlins, SP

Comment: Rather quietly, Sanchez makes his return to the majors after missing almost all of 2007 (and most of 2008) with a torn labrum. The 24-year old right-hander went 10-3 over 114.1 innings in 2006 with a sparkling 2.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He returns to a Florida offense capable of providing him with good enough run support to make him a feasible back-end fantasy starting pitcher if he can post solid ratios. In 5 minor-league rehab starts this season, Sanchez went 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 25 strikeouts in 28 innings. While his return to the big leagues could come with some rocky moments, Sanchez may prove to be a great pick-up for teams in need of pitching help. The deeper your league, the quicker you should be to act on Sanchez.

BEARISH

CARLOS GOMEZ, Minnesota Twins, OF
Comment: There is a lot to like about Gomez as a fantasy option going forward, but his first full season in the majors has gone into a tailspin lately. Since July 4^th, Gomez is hitting .111 with just 1 walk and 3 extra-base hits. Even worse, he has stolen only one base since June 26^th. Gomez also sustained a bruised lower back and tailbone on Friday, something that is not going to aid his production this week. He’s a marvelously talented player that needs to work on his approach at the plate, but for fantasy purposes this season; he should be relegated to the waiver wire unless he catches fire.

MIKE HAMPTON, Atlanta Braves, SP
Comment: Mike Hampton was waiting three years to get back on a major-league mound but this was not the return he was hoping for. Hampton was lit up on Saturday by the Phillies, surrendering 6 earned runs in 4 innings, taking the loss in his first start since August 19^th, 2005. The 35-year old is in no danger of losing a rotation spot at the moment as the Braves need him if they want to have any shot at making waves in the NL East, but it is hard to tell what Hampton can give them in 2008. He’s an incredibly fragile player who can seemingly break down at any moment and fantasy owners are better off leaving him alone unless he puts together a string of strong performances.

BRIAN McCANN, Atlanta Braves, C

Comment: Fantasy owners are holding their breath this week after a collision at the plate with Philadelphia’s Shane Victorino in the sixth inning of Sunday’s game. McCann has been diagnosed with a mild concussion. The All-Star catcher believes he’ll be okay and that he should only miss a couple of days, but last time I checked, he was not a physician. New York Mets outfielder Ryan Church (who suffered the same injury twice this season) believed he was fine to play as well but we have seen that concussions are serious matters that can require an extended stay on the bench. McCann is supposed to be re-evaluated today but fantasy owners should prepare to be without the Braves back-stop for at least this week and maybe longer depending on what it determined at his re-evaluation.

GEOVANY SOTO, Chicago Cubs, C
Comment: It may be time to sell-high on Geovany Soto. The All-Star catcher has been rather miserable lately with just 1 multi-hit game in his last 17 contests. Over that span, Soto has batted .194 and is showing signs of wearing down. He’s played at an elite level all season but as a 25-year old catcher, it should be expected that the grind of sitting behind the plate in his first full season in the big-leagues would affect his offensive production. Because of his overall numbers in 2008, fantasy owners in your league may be chomping at the bit to get Soto on their roster. If you have serious needs to address with your team, moving the Chicago back-stop may be a great solution.

BUST

RYAN FRANKLIN, St. Louis Cardinals, RP
Comment: He had an okay run, but it is time for Ryan Franklin to be taken out of the closer’s role in St. Louis. In his last 9 appearances, Franklin has blown two saves and sports an 8.44 ERA in 10.2 innings. He just does not have the stuff of a prototypical stopper and is way too hittable to be entrusted to get important outs. A trade for a closer (Brian Fuentes and George Sherrill have been brought up in trade rumors) could push Franklin out of ninth-inning duties and there was speculation that Adam Wainwright, who is rehabbing from a finger injury, could return to the team as the closer if the team’s bullpen continues to cough up leads. All this spells doom for the fantasy fortune of Franklin.

DUSTIN McGOWAN, Toronto Blue Jays, SP

Comment: Heading into this year, McGowan was being drafted as a no. 3 starting pitcher, one that fantasy owners were expecting to be a rotation staple adding much-needed depth. But as is the story for most of the Blue Jays roster, this season has been a nightmare. Fantasy owners and Toronto fans alike were hoping he would come back this year after rehabbing his injured shoulder, but news came out over the weekend that he will have season-ending surgery on Thursday. McGowan went 6-7 in 19 starts this year with an uninspiring 4.37 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 111.1 innings. He will be a sleeper to target for 2009 drafts, but as far as this season is concerned, how could it not be considered a bust?

SIDNEY PONSON, New York Yankees, SP
Comment: Heading into Sunday’s match-up against Boston, Sidney Ponson had been rather pedestrian as a member of New York’s rotation. Yet since the Yankees had won all four games that Ponson started for them, it was easy to ignore his performance. However, he really came apart in Fenway on Sunday, giving up 7 earned runs in just 4 innings. He is now 4-1 in five starts with New York, but owns an unsightly 6.07 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 26.2 innings. With the Yankees actively pursuing Jarrod Washburn, Ponson is likely to be out of a job sooner than later. Fantasy owners tend to be attracted to pitchers who play in front of top-notch offenses and with the way the Yankees have been surging, any pitcher who plays for them is going to get plenty of run support. However, Ponson’s ugly ratios are not worth the wins-potential. Leave him alone.

JORGE POSADA, New York Yankees, C
Comment: Posada enjoyed a career year in 2007, one that led to a big contract from New York. But his bum shoulder has sapped his value in 2008 as he has had just 3 homers in 51 games this season. Posada is trying to stave off season-ending shoulder surgery and hopes to rehab and return as a first-baseman/designated hitter this season. But the vibe around Yankee Stadium is that Posada is probably finished this year and even if he does come back, that shoulder is going to prevent him from driving the ball, thus eradicating his fantasy value. If you drafted Posada and were still holding onto him in hopes of a comeback, cut your losses now.

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Stock Watch

July 21, 2008

BY CHRIS STARBONELL
UPDATE! Writer

BULLISH

ROBINSON CANO, New York Yankees, 2B

Comment: Once the season officially kicked off its second-half, Cano suddenly realized it was time to produce. His career post-All Star break numbers heading into 2008 (.334 AVG, 32 HR, 141 RBI, 124 R, 5 SB in 204 games) gave his fantasy owners a glimmer of hope during his horrible first-half showing. In New York’s opening second-half series against the Athletics, Cano went 8-for-14 with a homer, 3 RBI and 3 runs scored. He’s shown in the past that he’s capable of producing at a high level as the season wears on and those of you who held onto or traded for Cano could have a second-half fantasy beast in the Yankee second baseman.

FAUSTO CARMONA, Cleveland Indians, SP
Comment: This past Tuesday Carmona told the Cleveland News-Herald, “I’m ready.” After another solid effort in Double-A, he could return as soon as July 25^th and is an intriguing player for the second-half. Since the start of 2007, Carmona has gone 23-10 in 42 starts with a 3.07 ERA, tantalizing numbers for fantasy owners to get excited about. Temper your expectations, however, as Carmona experienced issues with his control as evident by his 1.59 WHIP this season. He’s not a strikeout artist, so his fantasy value would be rendered useless if his ERA inflates as a result of poor command and the pathetic Indians offense cannot get him wins.

FERNANDO TATIS, New York Mets, OF
Comment: The Mets have been one of the hottest teams in baseball recently and Fernando Tatis has been a key player in the Mets’ success. During the month of July, Tatis is batting .378 with a .440 on-base percentage, 4 homers, 12 RBI, 8 runs and 1 stolen base. He’s been a standout player for the Mets since entering the starting lineup and with the way New York is playing; he could be a useful fantasy option for teams in need of an outfielder. Tatis is not likely to keep this up all season, but as a stopgap player, he makes sense right now.

RYAN ZIMMERMAN, Washington Nationals, 3B
Comment: Out since May 25^th with a tear in his left shoulder, Ryan Zimmerman is due to return Tuesday to the Nationals lineup. He was batting .257 with 7 home runs and 27 RBI in 50 games this year before getting hurt. While he could be a solid third baseman for fantasy rosters going forward, he may not have too much power potential due to his shoulder, possibly making him a liability if he cannot get his average up. NL-only leaguers should definitely pick him up if he’s available, while mixed-league players can probably afford to wait at least a game or two to see if he can come back strong from his DL stint.

BEARISH

JACOBY ELLSBURY, Boston Red Sox, OF
Comment: The Boston Globe reported on Monday, “David Ortiz’s return may have broader implications on the lineup than Terry Francona writing Ortiz’s name back in the No. 3 spot…It may give Francona an opportunity to address the alarming decline in production from rookie leadoff man Jacoby Ellsbury.” Since the beginning of June, Ellsbury has batted .242 with a .260 OBP, not the kind of numbers you expect from your leadoff hitter. When he has gotten on base, he has not been as effective as he was at the start of the year, registering just 2 steals in 6 attempts over his past 28 games. Ellsbury has elite steals potential, but if Ortiz’s presence bumps him from the lineup, his value will obviously take a serious hit.

TIM LINCECUM, San Francisco Giants, SP
Comment: Lincecum has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2008, but he could also be a serious sell-high candidate right now. Manager Bruce Bochy spoke on Lincecum last week stating, “He is somebody we’re going to keep an eye on and monitor him the second-half because we know his innings are going to be up there.” He pitched 177.1 innings last year between his time in the minors and majors and since he’s already reached 135.2 innings this season, he could see a serious drop in his innings pitched. Perhaps the workload is getting to him, over his past 7 starts Lincecum is 3-2 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He’s still striking guys out at an elite clip, but he may be more of a no. 3 or no. 4 option down the stretch rather than the no. 1 fantasy pitcher we’ve seen all season.

HIDEKI MATSUI, New York Yankees, OF
Comment: Matsui is going to have his left knee re-examined today and a decision on whether or not he will have season-ending surgery could come on Tuesday. He’s been out since June 22^nd and was batting .323 before hitting the disabled list. The news on Matsui has been getting progressively dreary as time has worn on and even he has admitted that surgery is a very real possibility. You should already have a contingency plan in place for your outfield in case he does miss the rest of the season, but it will be hard to replace Matsui’s no. 2 outfielder numbers.

KERRY WOOD, Chicago Cubs, RP
Comment: The world is right again as Kerry Wood makes his first trip to the disabled list this season with a blister on his right index finger, the move is retroactive to July 12^th. Wood has earned 24 saves in 29 chances with a 3.02 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 55 strikeouts in 44.2 innings in 2008. The transition for Wood from injury-plagued starter to closer has gone smoothly this year with this DL stint serving as the first hiccup for the Cubs. All-Star Carlos Marmol will serve as the interim closer but while Wood is eligible to return on the 27^th, we’ve all seen how fragile the former front-line starter can be. Keep Wood reserved for now, but track this situation very closely.

BUST

ERIK BEDARD, Seattle Mariners, SP
Comment: Bedard will not get on a mound until August at the earliest due to tightness in his left shoulder and it may officially be time for fantasy owners to cut ties with the Canadian left-hander. Bedard has had decent but sub-par (for his talent) numbers this year with a 6-4 record, 3.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 72 whiffs in 81 innings. Heading into 2008, Bedard appeared poised for a huge season with the Mariners but his time in Seattle has been hard to stomach thanks to his fragility and ineffective play. It seemed as though his value may have surged upward with a possible trade to a contender, but no one is going to try that hard to acquire him now if he cannot get on the mound. If you are in a shallow league or are simply not sure if you can afford to hold onto him without losing ground in other areas, it is time to cut Bedard loose.

PHILIP HUMBER, Minnesota Twins, SP
Comment: While the Mets gave up a legit everyday outfielder in Carlos Gomez and a potential ace-in-the-making in Deolis Guerra in the Johan Santana trade, Philip Humber is not going to make New York think twice about the move anytime soon. Humber has been incredibly disappointing in Triple-A this season for Minnesota, pitching to a 4-7 record with a 5.89 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 55 strikeouts in 81 innings. Had he put together an impressive minor-league showing, Humber may have gotten a call to the big-leagues by now. But with the pounding he’s been getting this season, don’t expect to see Humber up with the Twins anytime soon.

AARON LAFFEY, Cleveland Indians, SP
Comment: When Aaron Laffey started his 2008 season off with a 1.59 ERA in his first 6 starts, many folks thought that Cliff Lee 2.0 had arrived. Not so fast. Since the start of June, Laffey has gone 2-3 with a 5.22 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and just 21 strikeouts in 50 innings. He lasted just 3.2 innings against a horrid Seattle offense on Friday. He’s clearly shown that he cannot be relied upon in fantasy leagues and since the Indians are not going to do much for him in terms of run support, Laffey is not someone that should be owned at all right now.

ADAM LOEWEN, Baltimore Orioles, SP

Comment: Loewen effectively ended his career as a starting pitcher over the weekend thanks to a stress fracture in his right elbow. He’s had the same injury three times over the past two seasons and because the rehabilitation would be lengthy and come with no guarantees, Loewen has opted to focus on coming back to the Orioles as an outfielder. Baltimore is nobly standing by Loewen’s quest to return as a hitter, but it is tough to imagine him resurrecting his career in a similar fashion to Rick Ankiel. Loewen can be ignored in all leagues for the rest of the season and probably for 2009 as his return from the injury, coupled with the transition from pitching-to-hitting, figures to be a long road for him.

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Stock Watch

July 14, 2008

BY CHRIS STARBONELL
UPDATE! Writer

BULLISH

JONATHAN BROXTON, Los Angeles Dodgers, RP
Comment: Takashi Saito is having an MRI today, following an early exit from Saturday’s outing due to right elbow tightness. This is why you held onto Broxton all season. This could not have come at a better time either, not only are the Dodgers starting to round into shape as a team (which should result in more save opportunities during the second-half), but in his last 16 appearances, Broxton owns a 1.13 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and has struck out 15 batters in 16 inning. If Saito ends up missing significant time, Broxton should become a high-end fantasy relief option.

CLAY BUCHHOLZ, Boston Red Sox, SP
Comment: While his first start for Boston in his return to their starting rotation Friday night did not go swimmingly (5 innings, 4 earned runs, 5 hits, 5 walks, 6 strikeouts), Buchholz still showed why he could be a star in the big-leagues for years to come. He was throwing fastballs in the 95-96 mph range, something he was struggling with in his earlier stint in the majors during this season. His minor-league numbers in 2008 (4-2, 2.47 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 43 SO in 43.2 IP) point to an improved command. Buchholz will undoubtedly still go through some growing pains, particularly with his control, but with a strong supporting cast in Boston and the potential to strikeout about a batter per inning, he could be a great starting pitching option going forward for fantasy teams.

MIGUEL CABRERA, Detroit Tigers, 1B
Comment: Plenty of fantasy owners (myself included) have been irritated by the play of Miguel Cabrera. With that Detroit lineup, big things were expected, nay demanded, from the young slugger. Yet, there may be light at the end of the tunnel as Cabrera has been on a roll over his last 18 games: .319 AVG, 6 HR, 13 RBI, 9 R. While these stats do not atone for a first-half filled with disappointment, there is still plenty of time for Cabrera to make up for his early struggles. For this reason, Cabrera makes an excellent buy-low target.

ADAM JONES, Baltimore Orioles, OF
Comment: Adam Jones was a bona-fide sleeper pick heading into 2008, but a slow start and the fact that he was hitting 7^th or 8^th in a modest Orioles lineup has led to a lack of fantasy interest. He should have your attention now. Jones has been playing great since the start of June, hitting .329 with 3 homers, 24 RBI, 20 runs and 4 stolen bags. He’s got some untapped power he could dial into in the second-half, as evident by his 25 bombs in 101 Triple-A games last year. The most promising aspect of Jones’ game, however, all has to do with where he’s hitting in the lineup. Baltimore gave him 3 straight starts in the two-hole over the weekend against Boston, a spot sandwiched between run-generator Brian Roberts and the superbly talented Nick Markakis. Jones could be a gem after the All-Star break, so those of you in need of outfield help should invest in his services.

BEARISH

MICHAEL BOURN, Houston Astros, OF
Comment: Can someone please help Bourn out at the plate? The speedy, yet offensively inept, center-fielder has wheels to die for as evident by his 32 swipes in 39 attempts in 2008. But his woeful .218 batting average and atrocious .273 OBP this season could prevent him from becoming a viable everyday player in the majors. The Astros benched Bourn in 4 of his last 6 games because of his weak bat and he is not likely to return to leadoff duties unless he can prove that he is not a liability at the dish. Fantasy owners in rotisserie leagues were holding onto him despite his poor offense simply because he can carry a team in the steals department, though at a cost to your batting average, runs, RBI and home run totals. It seems safe to drop him now as the Astros are not giving him the benefit of the doubt anymore, but keep him in your radar. If he even shows a bit of improvement, Houston could put him out there with regularity again.

JESSE LITSCH, Toronto Blue Jays, SP
Comment: Litsch was a popular waiver-add in May, when he twirled a 4-0 record with a 2.08 ERA, but times have been tough lately. Over his past 8 starts, Litsch has gone 1-5 with a 5.56 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 21 strikeouts in 45.1 innings. In 3 of those starts, he has allowed 10 hits. He is more of a control pitcher and while he has issued 2 or more walks just 4 times in 19 starts in 2008, it has become clear that Litsch has had very hittable stuff since June. AL-only leaguers should hang onto him for at least another start or two while mixed leaguer players can feel free to drop Litsch if there is a more attractive option out there on the waiver wire.

ROY OSWALT, Houston Astros, SP
Comment: Roy Oswalt just cannot catch a break. Prior to his shortened July 11^th start against the Nationals, when he left after just one inning of work due to pain in his left hip, Oswalt had last pitched on June 30^th, when he left that start early with a strained left abductor. Now he will not pitch until July 22^nd at the earliest and may even be headed for the disabled list if things do not improve. It’s a shame that he is enduring all these injury woes, Oswalt was looking like his old-self since May 29^th, going 3-4 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 47.1 innings. If you can afford to take a chance on him, he makes an advisable trade target that could pay big dividends in the second-half. On the flip-side, this season could end up being a lost cause as the Astros are way out of the playoff race and they could decide to shut him down indefinitely in preparation for 2009.

JAVIER VAZQUEZ, Chicago White Sox, SP
Comment: Following a solid 2007 season, where he posted a 15-8 record with a 3.75 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 213 whiffs in 216.2 innings, fantasy owners were hoping he would be a reliable anchor to their staff in 2008. Things were going well for Vazquez in the beginning of the season, but over his past 7 starts, he is 2-3 with a 6.80 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and 40 strikeouts in 42.1 innings. While fantasy owners will happily take those strikeout totals, the unsavory ratios harkens back to Vazquez’s 2006 season with Chicago, when he went 11-12 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He’s a tough one to figure out as his career has been one big roller-coaster during which he has looked both brilliant and overmatched. His fantasy owners are just going to have to ride this one out for now as trading him now will probably bring back little in return.

BUST

JOE BOROWSKI, Free Agent, RP
Comment: Borowski received his walking papers on Thursday as the Indians designated him for assignment. This was a long time coming. Since the start of 2007, Borowski has totaled 51 saves for the Indians, but has also pitched to the tune of a 5.57 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 82.1 innings as one of the biggest heart-attack inducing closers in the game. He’s likely to not earn another job as a ninth-inning reliever and for that reason, he will probably never be fantasy relevant again.

GARY MATTHEWS Jr., Los Angeles Angels, OF

Comment: Matthews is a spectacular playmaker in the field with his glove, but at the plate, he’s been disastrous in 2008. Batting .235 with 7 homers, 34 RBI, 34 runs and 6 stolen bags, his numbers are down across the board from seasons past. He has just one multi-hit game since June 11^th and has batted .189 over that span with just 1 homer, 4 RBI, 7 runs scored and 1 stolen base. His playing time has been cut recently and if he does not pick things up, he may even end up in a reserve role on this team as the Angels have plenty of outfield talent available to step in and produce. Keep Matthews away from your fantasy roster.

MICAH OWINGS, Arizona Diamondbacks, SP
Comment: After his first four starts, when he went 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 23 whiffs in 26 innings, it looked like Owings was on the fast track to a breakthrough season. Injuries and big-time struggles in the rotation, however, have put the kibosh on those thoughts. He’s lost his last 6 decisions and has posted a 7.71 ERA in his last 7 starts. Owings may even lose his rotation spot as his starting pitching struggles, coupled with his strong relief outings on July 4^th and 12^th (where he pitched a total of 2.2 innings allowing no runs, 1 walk and striking out 4), could put him in the bullpen where the D-backs may need him more. As of right now, Owings should be sitting on waiver-wires in fantasy leagues everywhere.

EDGAR RENTERIA, Detroit Tigers, SS
Comment: Renteria left Wednesday’s game with a hamstring injury and I’m sure he was dropped by plenty of fantasy owners as well. While manager Jim Leyland expects Renteria to be ready to play when the Tigers season resumes, we all know hamstring injuries can linger and last all season. Even when he was healthy, it was not as if Renteria was doing much good. Heading into the All-Star break Renteria was hitting .254 with 5 homers, 33 RBI, 39 runs and 3 steals in 82 contests. Some of you may be holding on to hope that because he is hitting in a potentially explosive Tigers lineup, he is worth holding onto. If you feel that way, good luck having Renteria lead you to a fantasy championship this season.

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Stock Watch

July 7, 2008

BY CHRIS STARBONELL
UPDATE! Writer

BULLISH

GRANT BALFOUR, Tampa Bay Rays, RP
Comment: With Troy Percival out for an undetermined amount of time, Grant Balfour appears to have emerged as the leading candidate for saves in the Rays bullpen. He’s earned 2 saves since Percival went down including a perfect outing on Saturday against the Royals. Balfour is 2-0 this season with a 1.02 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 27 strikeouts in 17.2 innings. Anyone closing games for the first-place Rays is going to have value and with the way the Australian right-hander has pitched thus far in 2008, he should be a great option going forward.

BRETT GARDNER, New York Yankees, OF
Comment: When Gardner was called up to the major-league club this past week, manager Joe Girardi insisted he was going to see plenty of at-bats. Well with Johnny Damon landing on the disabled list, Gardner is going to have a good amount of leash for at least a couple of weeks to show what he can do in the big leagues. He has great speed on the base-paths as he swiped 34 bags in 80 games at Triple-A this season and already has 3 steals in 6 games with the Yankees. He started off his big-league career slowly, but with a clutch, game-winning RBI single on Sunday, he may start to see major-league success. If he can produce at the top of the order, he could have tremendous value with his speed and the Yankee bats behind him. AL-only leaguers in need of outfield help should add Gardner while mixed-leaguers desperate for speed may even want to take a chance on him as well.

J.J. HARDY, Milwaukee Brewers, SS
Comment: Hardy has been devouring opposing pitchers of late and is in the midst of a torrid streak. Since June 30^th, he has batted .600 with 6 homers, 12 RBI, 8 runs scored and 1 stolen base in 7 games. We’ve seen this before. In the first two months of last season, Hardy hit .304, swatted 15 homers and drove in 46 RBI in 52 games. When any player is this hot, fantasy owners should ride the streak and Hardy is no exception. While it is impossible to tell how long he will continue to hit like this, even a short-term burst could help propel a fantasy team up the standings.

JOSH JOHNSON, Florida Marlins, SP
Comment: It is official, Josh Johnson is returning to the Marlins rotation after missing virtually all of 2007 and will start on Thursday against San Diego. Johnson, who had Tommy John Surgery in 2007, was spectacular in his rookie campaign in 2006, going 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA and 133 whiffs in 157 innings. Yet despite his success in his first year in the majors, fantasy owners should temper their expectations with Johnson in 2008. He had a couple of inconsistent outings in minor-league ball while rehabbing this season and while his last start went well (8 shutout innings in a Double-A start on Friday) it should be noted that he did not even face Triple-A hitting while building up his arm strength. Expect some rough patches in his return to the Marlins as we have seen many a pitcher begin their return from Tommy John surgery with mixed results.

BEARISH

KELVIM ESCOBAR, Los Angeles Angels, SP
Comment: Escobar was shut down indefinitely after reporting pain in his right shoulder, where he has a torn labrum. As a result, Escobar is considering having season-ending shoulder surgery that may even end his career. What a shame. Escobar looked on his way to a return after the All-Star break, but now with this latest setback, he may be done for the season even if he opts to not have surgery. The Angels have no reason to rush him back as their starting rotation has performed extremely well, so do not be surprised if news comes out in the next week or so that Escobar will not return in 2008.

BOBBY JENKS, Chicago White Sox, RP
Comment: While he is expecting to return to the mound on Tuesday, fantasy owners should have already added Scott Linebrink as insurance. Sure the diagnostic tests came back negative, but back ailments are troublesome injuries (see: Rafael Furcal) and with his size and the sheer power generated by Jenks with each pitch, it seems unlikely that this problem will just go away with a couple of days of rest. The White Sox are not ready to put him on the disabled list, but do not be surprised if he lands on the DL sometime this week if he’s not physically ready to play. As stated before, add Linebrink if you can because if Jenks goes down, he’s next in line for saves.

CLAYTON KERSHAW, Los Angeles Dodgers, SP
Comment: Phenom lefty C