NFL Fantasy Preview: Quarterbacks
August 11, 2008
Carson Palmer is ready to show the NFL that he is an elite quarterback
[PHOTO BY ICON SMI]
BY MICHAEL GANCI
UPDATE! Writer
Quarterbacks do not grow on trees. You can’t just trust anyone to be your number one quarterback, and you need to look at more than just reputation alone. Just because a QB had a successful 2007 doesn’t mean he will repeat that performance in 2008. There are many things that factor into a quarterback’s success, including the cast of characters he has to work with. Below, UPDATE! will show you who you should buy on, who you should stay away from and who you should sleep on.
HOT 15
1. Peyton Manning
Indianapolis Colts
2007: 337-515, 4,040 YDS, 31 TD, 14 INT
Comments: While 2007 was the first year since 2003 in which Peyton did not exceed a 100 passer rating, he still put up exceptional numbers for his position. He connected on 31 touchdown passes for the second straight season, and he did so a lot of the time without his biggest weapon: Marvin Harrison. Harrison’s health is big in terms of Manning’s production. Also, Harrison being healthy opens up Reggie Wayne for some passes. Manning can be counted on for 30 touchdowns and almost 4,000 yards, which are the numbers he puts up every season. Even though Tom Brady had a monster year last season, Manning continues to be the number one quarterback in fantasy.
2. Tom Brady
New England Patriots
2007: 398-578, 4,806 YDS, 50 TD, 8 INT
Comments: 2007 was an awesome season, even for Tom Brady. He shattered the record by throwing 50 touchdowns during the season. He found a new favorite target in Randy Moss. Brady also amassed over 4,800 yards in the air. He figures to not repeat those numbers because the coaching staff seems to have more faith in Lawrence Maroney going into the season. He will still be good for 3,500 yards and upwards of 30 touchdowns.
3. Tony Romo
Dallas Cowboys
2007: 335-520, 4,211 YDS, 36 TD, 19 INT
Comments: Romo has a lot going for him, and I am not even talking about Jessica Simpson. While sporting a 97 quarterback rating last season, Romo threw for 4,211 yards and completed 36 touchdown passes. He has the best defense in the NFL, so he will be on the field more than the average quarterback. He also has an elite wide receiver in Terrell Owens, and maybe the number one tight end in Jason Witten.
4. Drew Brees
New Orleans Saints
2007: 440-652, 4,423 YDS, 28 TD, 18 INT
Comments: Brees, in terms of yardage, is coming off of his best year as a pro. He threw for 4,423 yards, and also had a career high in touchdowns with 28. One unflattering note about 2007 for Brees was his interception total, in which he accumulated 18. His completion percentage was the best it’s ever been, and with the addition of Jeremy Shockey, he now has that go-to option for third downs. Brees is an elite quarterback and there is no reason to think he will be anything less.
5. Carson Palmer
Cincinnati Bengals
2007: 373-575, 4,131 YDS, 26 TD, 20 INT
Comments: Palmer is coming off of a good season, but we all know he is capable of much better. He had the highest interception total of his career with 20, but his yards were a career high as well. He amassed 4,131 yards in the 16 games that he played. His QB rating was the lowest it has been since 2004, but Palmer has battled an array of injuries. His completion percentage was better, but he will tell you that he knows he can play at a higher level. Look for Palmer to have a breakout season, eclipsing 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. He will definitely be a top five QB in fantasy.
6. Ben Roethlisberger
Pittsburgh Steelers
2007: 264-404, 3,154 YDS, 32 TD, 11 INT
Comments: is coming off a breakout season, one in which he made the Pro Bowl and shattered a Steelers single-season record with 32 touchdown passes. The scary thing is that may not be his best, because he is still learning a new offensive scheme. He also accumulated over 3,100 yards and threw only 11 picks on the season. He is not as valuable as a Peyton Manning, Tom Brady or Tony Romo, but he is definitely on top of the next tear of quarterbacks. The 104 rating was the highest of his career, and there is no reason to believe that he won’t keep producing next season.
7. Matt Hasslebeck
Seattle Seahawks
2007: 352-562, 3,966 YDS, 28 TD, 12 INT
Comments: When people talk about the top quarterbacks in the NFL, Hasslebeck is often looked over for some reason. If you look at the numbers, he is right up there with the best of them. After an off year in 2006, Hasslebeck rebounded nicely, throwing 28 touchdowns against only 12 picks in 2007. The also amassed 3,966 yards, which is a career high for the former Green Bay Packer. He also proved that he is more than capable of completing the big pass. He tied a career high by completing seven passes of 40 yards or better. Hasslebeck is showing no signs of slowing down, and is a good option in all fantasy leagues.
8. Jay Cutler
Denver Broncos
2007: 297-467, 3,497 YDS, 20 TD, 14 INT
Comments: This is probably my surprise pick of the bunch. While he hasn’t fully proven himself yet, Cutler has the making to be one of the NFL’s top QB’s and this may be the year for him to break out. Remember, last year was his first full season, and he threw 20 touchdowns and 14 picks. The interception total needs to come down, but no one will complain with nearly 3,500 yards of production. Cutler has a nice young core of receivers, so he should have an even better year this season. Have faith in him.
9. Philip Rivers
San Diego Chargers
2007: 277-460, 3,152 YDS, 21 TD, 15 INT
Comments: Philip Rivers is coming off of his second full season as the starting quarterback, and this year was not as successful as the first. He threw for 200 yards less than 2006, and he also threw 6 more interceptions. He has a decent receiver core, and he is coming off of an injury. We will have to see if he is on top of his game. I think it’s going to be a rebound year for Philip. He will look to regain his form of 2006 in which he threw for 22 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. This is not the time to give up on him just yet. He is probably a guy who will go in the fourth or fifth round.
10. Donovan McNabb
Philadelphia Eagles
2007: 291-473, 3,324 YDS, 19 TD, 7 INT
Comment: Everyone in their right mind knows that Donovan McNabb still has the ability to be an elite quarterback in the NFL, but the key with him is health, and right now, that may be a concern. Although he keeps denying it, his right shoulder may be an issue. If he is right, he still remains a good fantasy option. Last year he started 14 games and threw 19 touchdowns against seven picks. He also tallied up 3,324 yards, which was his highest total since 2004. A lot of people are going to be afraid to draft him due to health concerns, so you may find him lying around in the fourth round. It is risky, but I believe it is a gamble that is worth taking.
11. Derek Anderson
Cleveland Browns
2007: 298-527, 3,787 YDS, 29 TD, 19 INT
Comments: Derek Anderson was the surprise of the year in 2007, and he put up some big numbers. He started all 16 games, and he totaled 29 touchdowns and over 3,700 yards. The two areas in which he would like to improve is his completion percentage, which was 56.5 percent last season, and his interceptions, in which he threw 19. Donte Stallworth joins a talent receiver crew that includes Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow and Joe Jurevicius, and having those guys as targets makes Anderson a low end number one quarterback. He will be available in the middle rounds, so don’t be afraid to take him.
12. Eli Manning
New York Giants
2007: 297-529, 3,336 YDS, 23 TD, 20 INT
Comments: Last year, Anthony Lamberti said that 2007 would be a year to define Eli Manning, and it sure was. People were questioning his integrity during the season, but an incredible run put those questions to rest. His numbers don’t scream Super Bowl Champion. He still has room for improvement. In 2007, Manning eclipsed 3,200 yards passing for the third straight season. He has also thrown at least 23 TDs in each of those seasons. One area in which Manning would like to improve upon is interceptions. The 20 he threw in 2007 was a career high for the young Manning. If he can minimize them, he will be a force. The loss of Jeremy Shockey hurts, but Manning is still a viable fantasy quarterback.
13. David Garrard
Jacksonville Jaguars
2007: 208-325, 2,509 YDS, 18 TD, 3 INT
Comments: Garrard played only 12 games last season, and that is because Byron Leftwich was released after four games as the team’s starter. The numbers that Garrard put up after that opened a lot of eyes around the NFL. In 12 games, Garrard threw 18 touchdowns and only three interceptions. He completed 64 percent of his passes and had an impressive 102.2 passer rating throughout the campaign. Adding Jerry Porter will help his value if the former Raider can stay healthy, and I look for Garrard to lead the Jaguars to success in the upcoming season. He could be a guy you might be able to wait until the fourth or fifth round to pick up. But, believe me, he will be worth it.
14. Jake Delhomme
Carolina Panthers
2007: 55-86, 624 YDS, 8 TD, 1 INT
Comments: Delhomme’s season was cut short last season due to injury, and he is looking to come back with a vengeance. He only participated in three regular season games, but he amassed 8 touchdowns while throwing only one interception. He has always been able to accumulate yards, and as a starter, he never threw under 2,800 yards in a season before last season was cut short. He is showing in camp that his injury is no longer hampering him, so he should be ready to go. He is a good number two fantasy option.
15. Matt Leinart
Arizona Cardinals
2007: 60-112, 647 YDS, 2 TD, 4 INT
Comments: When you have WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, you’re going to have a decent year. However, the offensive line is still better at run blocking, and Leinart can also be a health risk, so I wouldn’t rank him as high as you may expect. Leinart comes into 2008 as a No. 2 QB for fantasy because he doesn’t have the big ability yet. He is going to be pushed hard for the starting job by Kurt Warner, who continues to battle for a new contract, so whoever starts will hold this spot in the rankings. This could be the breakout year that is expected of Leinart. He will be available in the late rounds if you need a number two quarterback.
UPDATE! SLEEPERS
1. Trent Edwards
Buffalo Bills
2007: 151-269, 1,630 YDS, 7 TD, 8 INT
Comments: Edwards was hardly impressive in his first nine games as a starter in the NFL, but sometimes, good things take time. Edwards tried to do too much and he often got burned because of it. He threw seven picks against eight interceptions in those nine games, which is something that he will be looking to improve upon. He has a new addition in rookie WR James Hardy, but Edwards will not be a good option right away. You have to wait and see how guys like Lee Evans play before you can judge Edwards’ value, but this may be a guy to put on your sleeper list.
2. Tavaris Jackson
Minnesota Vikings
2007: 171-294, 1,911 YDS, 9 TD, 12 INT
Comments: Jackson didn’t have many consistent targets to throw to, and management tried to solve that problem by adding former Bears’ wide receiver Bernard Berrian. While he will certainly help Jackson progress, other guys are going to need to step up as well. Jackson nine touchdown, 12 interception ratio is something that is going to need to be fixed, but he is still very young. If you want to take a big chance, you can draft him late, but don’t waste a mid round pick on him. He may develop into a number two quarterback as the season wears on.
3. Vince Young
Tennessee Titans
2007: 238-382, 2,546 YDS, 9 TD, 17 INT
Comments: I have a feeling people are going to eat me alive for this pick, but let me explain myself. Vince Young has shown small flashes of brilliance since being drafted by the Tennessee Titans. The key to this season being different than the last two is the fact that he has a new favorite target, Alge Crumpler. With his ability to be mobile, receivers should be able to get open. The Titans’ offensive line still leaves much to be desired, but they added a couple of old faces on the team, including an old favorite of Tennessee fans, Justin McCareins. Maybe he will help Young as well. Only time will tell.
JUST SAY NO!
1. Jon Kitna
Detroit Lions
2007: 355-561, 4,068 YDS, 18 TD, 20 INT
Comments: If you are desperate for someone who can accumulate yards, Kitna is your man, but only then. Kitna is a guy who has some value when with Mike Martz, but that honeymoon has coincided, and Kitna has come back down to earth. I n2007, Kitna threw for over 4,000 yards and 18 touchdowns, but he also threw 20 picks. He is unlikely to have the same yardage success this year, and I would avoid him as a fantasy player. He hasn’t thrown for more than 21 touchdowns since 2003. Leave him alone.
2. Marc Bulger
St. Louis Rams
2007: 221-378, 2,392 YDS, 11 TD, 15 INT
Comments: For Bulger, he has all the tools to be a number one QB, but he has been showing signs of decline. In 2007, Bulger had no protection, and because of that he missed games because of rib and head injuries. The Rams are going to try to move to the fast-paced offense that helped them win the Super Bowl in 1999, but who knows what Bulger is capable of? He will look to regain his form of 2006, but I just don’t see it happening with the terrible offensive line that is in front of him.
3. Rex Grossman
Chicago Bears
2007: 122-225, 1,411 YDS, 4 TD, 7 INT
Comments: The only people who have benefitted from the production that Rex Grossman has put up in his career are the waiver wire people of 2006. For the people who continue to play, it is important to realize that 1006 was a mirage, and it is likely that Grossman will not even be the starter in Chicago this season. As of now, he is currently on an even playing field with Kyle Orton, who is getting his shot as well. Even if Grossman does win the job, he will be at best a low end number two QB, but is not really someone worth considering at all in fantasy.
The Mirages of Baseball: Soon to Disappoint
June 30, 2008
Chipper won’t be able to keep up the pace in the second half of 2008.
PHOTO BY ICON SMI
BY MICHAEL GANCI
Update Writer!
Every year in baseball, there are people who shock the world into thinking that they are breaking out into their prime, only to let their fantasy owners down in the second half. Last year, Jose Reyes may have been a perfect example. The following is a list of ten players who will not be worth the gamble in the second half.
BATTERS
1. CHRISTIAN GUZMAN, SS, Washington Nationals
Comment: The Nationals are making a big mistake by offering Guzman a multi-year contract extension. His numbers have been solid thus far. He is leading the league with 110 hits, and has opened a lot of eyes with his .313 average. He never walks, and that has hurt his on-base percentage. In fact, his career OBP is only .305, which is below average for a major league shortstop. Although he hit over .300 last year, remember that his season was cut short due to injury. He only played 46 games. The last time before last season that he hit over .300 was in 2001, when he was a member of the Minnesota Twins. My advice would be to sell high, because you can probably net a decent bounty before he comes back down to earth.
2. MILTON BRADLEY, OF, Texas Rangers
Comment: Texas made a risky investment when they signed Bradley in the offseason, but thus far, he is exceeding expectations by far. He is tied for the American League lead with a .323 average and has already belted 16 homers. He has an impressive .443 on base percentage, and is clearly the MVP on this Rangers team. So what’s the problem? The only time Milton Bradley has exceeded 500 at-bats was in 2004 when he was a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers. And, in that season, he only hit 19 homers. While his numbers when the season is all said and done might be above average, I think people need to think about the injury-risk. Bradley has spent plenty of time on the disabled list in the last few years, and he even injured himself while arguing with an umpire. Cash in while you can.
3. CHIPPER JONES, 3B, Atlanta Braves
Comment: Now, before people jump down my throat, let me explain. Chipper is hitting a nasty .394 with 16 homers and 46 RBI in 2008. He has also scored 48 runs and his ob-base percentage is .485. Currently, Chipper is battling injury. He sat out his eighth straight game recently and it is things like this that will prevent him from putting up the monster line when all is said and done. He is a mild tear, and who knows if that will hold up for the rest of the season? He could be one pull away from season-ending surgery. In 1996-2003, Chipper appeared in over 150 games each year. But, since then, he hasn’t accomplished that feat once. The most he appeared in was 137 in 2004. The wear and tear is starting to get to Chipper, and although this may be a hard decision for you to make, you need to deal him while you can, and especially in keeper leagues, because he could net you two or three young quality players.
4. SKIP SCHUMAKER, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Comment: Schumaker has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals this season to go along with Ryan Ludwick. He is hitting .304 with six homers and 30 RBI in 276 at-bats thus far this season. His average is the 11 th best in the National League. The 28-year-old is a career minor leaguer who is performing for the first time at the big level, but no one in their right mind expects this to last. Odds are, if you have Schumaker on your team, you got him off the scrap heap. Now is the time to deal him for a pitcher, because pitchers are going to look at tape and find his vulnerability.
5. JORGE CANTU, 3B, Florida Marlins
Comment: Cantu has been impressive this season for the Marlins. He was recently in the midst of a slump, but he may have ended that with a game-winning hit on Sunday. He is currently hitting .278 on the season, with 14 homers and 47 RBI. This is a guy that was brought in to compete with other players for the starting job, and was also someone no one took seriously. He is a major part to why the Marlins are having the success that they are enjoying. His career year was in 2005 with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He hit .286 and scorched 28 homers and 117 RBI. Since then, he has failed to eclipse 14 homers and 62 RBI. The Rays gave up on him, and so did the Reds. The reason is because he is not consistent enough to keep this going for an entire season. Thus, my recommendation would be to deal him for a more proven consistent player.
PITCHERS
1. BRADEN LOOPER, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Comment: Looper has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals this season, as he sports a 9-5 record thus far. He was a 4.26 ERA in just under 100 innings thus far. He has only struck out 44 hitters. People need to remember that Looper has never thrown more 175 innings, and he only did that once. Before becoming a starter last season, his high was 86 innings with the 2002 Marlins. Looper doesn’t dazzle hitters, but he has been able to get good run support and has been able to wean his way out of jams. I don’t think his arm will last through the season, so my recommendation would be to sell high.
2. VICENTE PADILLA, SP, Texas Rangers
Comment: Padilla is on a roll right now on a Texas team that isn’t. He is 10-4 on the season, and has pitched at least six innings in six straight starts. Four of those were wins. But, don’t let the good overshadow the bad. Padilla has been maybe the most inconsistent pitcher in baseball over the last few years. First off, from 2004-2007, he exceeded nine wins only once. Secondly, he has given up 19 homers already, which means he is going to give up more homers than he ever has. That is almost a 40 pace. He has exceeded 200 innings only once since 2003, and is someone you most certainly should sell high on.
3. ANDY SONNASTINE, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Comment: The 25-year old Sonnastine has had a nice first half after a subpar year of starting in which he went 6-10 with a 5.85 ERA last season. But, this year, he is sporting a 9-3 record and a 4.60 ERA to go along with 67 Ks in 101.2 innings. People need to remember the year he had last year, and also remember that he is only 25. He is not going to be a 20-game winner. His value right now is through the roof, and I don’t think I would be overreacting if I said that he probably went undrafted in 80 percent of leagues. If you are lucky enough to be benefitting from his excellent first half, field some offers, and if the right one comes around, don’t be afraid to deal him.
4. RYAN DEMPSTER, SP, Chicago Cubs
Comment: People often forget that Dempster was a starter for six years before being moved to the bullpen, and he was average at best. His record in those six years was 47-48 in the games he started. Then, he spent four years in the bullpen before being reinstated in the rotation in 2008. He is ten games under .500 for his career with almost a 5.00 ERA. This first half performance is surprising, but people need to remember that he gets tons of run support. It is time for the Dempster owner to think long and hard about the bounty they would be able to get for the Cubs starter, and see if it is worth it for your team, because I don’t think he will be this good in the second half.
5. TIM REDDING, SP, Washington Nationals
Comment: Before reading his name here, many of you probably didn’t realize that Redding was having a good first half. Well, he is. Currently, he has gone seven straight games in which he has gotten no-decisions. He is 6-3 on the year for a hopeless Nationals team. The journeyman was picked up in spring training to compete for a spot, and he was given his chance when John Patterson was cut and the wave of injuries hit. There is no way he is going to be this productive in the second half, and if you own him in a deep league, now is the time to cash in.
College Football: Preseason Top 25
June 23, 2008
BY BRETT MAUSER
Update! Writer
TOP 25
Georgia returns just about everybody, including Heisman-type RB Knowshon Moreno. The schedule’s wicked, with dates at Arizona State, LSU and Auburn, plus a neutral site war with Florida, but even though it should keep the Dawgs from going unbeaten, they’re plenty good to win the whole thing.
2. USC
Even though three of its alumni went in the first round of April’s draft, the Trojan D promises to be vicious thanks to the Rey Maualuga-led linebacking corps and an experienced secondary.
3. OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes are loaded. Chris Wells leads an offense that’s largely intact from a year ago; on defense, James Laurinaitis and Malcolm Jenkins are future top 10 picks. The big test: at USC Sept. 13.
4. OKLAHOMA
Smooth Sam Bradford and shifty DeMarco Murray will make the Sooners tough to stop, and linebacker Curtis Lofton stands amid a fine OU defense. Without Missouri on the regular season schedule, the road’s wide open to the Big 12 title game.
5. FLORIDA
Tim Tebow’s as versatile as they come, and has undoubtedly drawn the attention of the Griffin family. Percy Harvin, too, is a chameleon, and their joint effort will let it be known they can score on anybody.
6. MISSOURI
QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin and TE Chase Coffman are sure to put up crooked numbers on the scoreboard, and the defense brings back 10 starters.
7. TEXAS
QB Colt McCoy should have plenty of time behind a polished O-line; on the other side, DE Brian Orakpo fuels a potentially game-changing pass rush.
8. AUBURN
Brad Lester will run wild behind an offensive line that returns five starters, provided his quarterback, JC transfer Chris Todd, keeps defenses from loading the box.
9. CLEMSON
QB Cullen Harper, RB James Davis and WR Aaron Kelly are arguably the country’s most balanced offensive trio, and the Tiger secondary is among the best anywhere.
10. KANSAS
Despite the loss of Aqib Talib, the Jayhawks defense is stacked with talent, led by MLB Joe Mortensen.
11. WEST VIRGINIA
Electric RB Noel Devine will make the Mountaineer faithful forget all about the departure of Rich Rodriguez and Steve Slaton.
12. LSU
The Tigers are still loaded, but quarterback inexperience plus the loss of Bo Pelini will make it tough for LSU to repeat.
13. TEXAS TECH
QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree might be the top two picks in your fantasy league, but can the system win at A&M, Kansas and Oklahoma?
14. ARIZONA STATE
With QB Rudy Carpenter and RB Keegan Herring leading the way, points will only be an issue if the young offensive line doesn’t develop.
15. BYU
Between play caller Max Hall, bruising back Harvey Unga and a positively massive offensive line, the Cougars can move the ball with ease, making up for an undersized and inexperienced defense.
16. WISCONSIN
Much of an unusually giving Badger D looks to redeem itself, with safety Shane Carter leading the way. The real issue’s at quarterback, where Wisconsin tries its luck with a first-year starter.
17. SOUTH FLORIDA
Look out, Big East. The Bulls return almost all of an offensive unit that averaged 34.7 points per game last year, led by do-it-all QB Matt Grothe.
18. TENNESSEE
After three years behind Erik Ainge, Jonathan Crompton is ready to step right in. His line, which returns four starters, gave up just four sacks last year in 534 pass attempts.
19. ALABAMA
John Parker Wilson isn’t on anyone’s draft board, but he’s steady, and the Bama attack can run all day behind Outland candidates Antoine Caldwell and Andre Smith.
20. OREGON
A playmaking secondary headlines a stout Duck defense, which will give the offense, now without Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart, time to adjust.
21. FLORIDA STATE
The Seminoles are far from the elite level at which they played during the 1990s, but QB Drew Weatherford and CB Tony Carter should make them players in the ACC.
22. WAKE FOREST
Intact linebacker and secondary units should keep the Demon Deacons in every game, although QB Riley Skinner’s surrounded by unfamiliar faces in the huddle.
23. RUTGERS
With Ray Rice gone, it’s time for Mike Teel to accept more responsibility, and he has Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood, maybe college’s best returning WR tandem, flanking him.
24. SOUTH CAROLINA
A defense that took its lumps in a five-game losing streak to end last year should fare better, led by an awesome secondary.
25. UCLA
Rick Neuheisel, Norm Chow and DeWayne Walker are capable of making magic happen with haste at the Rose Bowl.
First Basemen
March 20, 2008
By: Chris Starbonell
Update! Writer
Fantasy owners tend to get a sizable amount of power from the first base position. It seems that most of the league’s top sluggers play the position, making it a relatively deep pool. Some folks like to wait on snagging a first baseman, noting how potential 25-plus home run guys are available late in drafts or even on the waiver wire. If you follow this tactic, just make sure you have some insurance because landing a dud at first base could derail your title dreams. Without further ado, Update! presents the top twenty first basemen.:
2007 Stats: .327 AVG, 32 HR, 103 RBI, 99 R, 2 SB
Comment: Pujols was the consensus No. 1 overall pick heading into the 2007 draft. He went on to have somewhat of an “off-year.” Heed these words: Pujols is not in decline. He’s a 28-year-old beast who should come back strong this year to clobber 40-plus HR, 120 RBI and score at least 100 runs. As far as Update! is concerned, he’s still the elite pick of the position and should be taken in the early part of the first round.
2007 Stats: .268 AVG, 47 HR, 136 RBI, 94 R, 1 SB
Comment: When it comes to power numbers, Howard is as productive as they come. He would have topped 50 HR for the second consecutive year, but he started off the season slowly. Of small concern should be Howard’s batting average; in 2006 he hit .313, but that figure dropped big-time in 2007. It’s worth noting, however, that he batted .280 in the second-half. Any way you slice it — with that lineup in that small ballpark — Howard should be a 50 HR, 130-plus RBI threat once again in 2008.
2007 Stats: .288 AVG, 50 HR, 119 RBI, 109 R, 2 SB
Comment: Fielder became the youngest player ever to hit 50 HR in the majors last season. He has a bright future ahead of him; he just needs to work on his steadiness. Here are Fielder’s month-by-month AVG/HR totals in 2007: .270/6, .321/13, .258/8, .277/3, .267/9 and .333/11. As you can see, he jumps up and down in his production. The amazing part is that despite his variations in stats, he still ends up with elite numbers. Just imagine how mammoth his game could be if he maintained a consistent pace.
2007 Stats: .306 AVG, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 86 R, 0 SB
Comment: Teixeira’s numbers with the Texas Rangers in 78 games last year were as follows: .297 AVG, 13 HR, 49 RBI and 48 R. Not too shabby, but check out Tex’s stats in just 54 games with the Braves: .317 AVG, 17 HR, 56 RBI and 38 R. He obviously had no problem adapting to his new team and joining a contending squad seemed to spark his bat. Teixeira could be in store for his best season yet in 2008, perhaps with a terrific batting average to boot.
2007 Stats: .271 AVG, 31 HR, 111 RBI, 84 R, 1 SB
Comment: Morneau was on pace for a monster season through the first-half of 2007, totaling a .295 AVG, 24 HR, 74 RBI and 57 R in 83 games. But he really fell apart (like the rest of the Twins team) in the second-half, garnering a .243 AVG, 7 HR, 37 RBI and 27 R. This is strange to see from Morneau, who did the complete opposite in 2006 en route to an AL MVP. Even though fantasy owners run some risk with Morneau struggling for a stretch of the season, the man can still be counted on for 30-40 HR and 110-125 RBI when it’s all said and done.
2007 Stats: .282 AVG, 46 HR, 121 RBI, 99 R, 1 SB
Comment: Pena exploded onto the scene in 2007 as a 29-year-old breakout after the Boston Red Sox cut him the season before. If his numbers aren’t convincing enough, consider his Top 5 ranking in the American League in HR, RBI, slugging percentage (.627), on-base percentage (.411), extra base-hits (76), walks (103), OPS (1.037) and at-bats per HR (10.7). There is some risk involved with taking a player who has had only one great season, especially when that player will be 30 in May. But Pena’s game seems legit. Consider him a No. 1 first baseman.
2007 Stats: .278 AVG, 34 HR, 102 RBI, 95 R, 7 SB
Comment: Berkman regressed some in 2007. After spending 2006 putting up brawny stats (.315 AVG, 45 HR, 136 RBI, 95 R, 3 SB), his numbers suffered considerably in 2007. There are plenty of players out there who would consider last year a great season, but for Berkman, it may be the sign of a decline. It’s encouraging that Houston has built a better lineup in the off-season, so he should at least match last season’s stats if healthy in 2008.
2007 Stats: .331 AVG, 15 HR, 67 RBI, 41 R, 0 SB
Comment: The future is now for Loney, who made his case for as the starting first baseman for 2008 by hitting .382 with nine HR, 32 RBI and 18 runs in Sept. If the Dodgers are smart, he’ll hit no later than fifth in the lineup. It’s not everyday that you get a young, gifted slugger like Loney who can drive the ball and hit for a high batting average. With Grady Little gone from the manager’s role (he stubbornly kept Loney out of the starting lineup for most of the season despite Los Angeles’ struggling offense), Loney will flourish this season.
2007 Stats: .282 AVG, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 101 R, 0 SB
Comment: It’s frustrating that Gonzalez can’t play all his games on the road; he pounded 20 HR and drove in 64 runs in 82 games away from San Diego. This off-season, the Padres added Tadahito Iguchi and Jim Edmonds, which gives the offense a boost (though they still lack protection for Gonzalez’s bat). He turns 26 in May and is still getting better, so he should at least improve a little on last season’s numbers, regardless of the home stadium situation.
2007 Stats: .296 AVG, 21 HR, 102 RBI, 86 R, 13 SB
Comment: Guillen makes the shift to first base from shortstop this season due to his diminishing fielding range and the acquisition of Edgar Renteria. While he doesn’t fit the bill of a power-hitting first baseman, Guillen did reach career-highs in HR and RBI in 2007. He’s a great hitter that can hit well over .300 and should score over 100 runs in that explosive runs Tigers lineup. For fantasy purposes though, since he’ll probably be shortstop eligible, he’ll have more value slotted in as a shortstop (though he’s bound to finish as a top-15 first baseman as well).
2007 Stats: .317 AVG, 22 HR, 82 RBI, 91 R, 6 SB
Comment: It wasn’t exactly a return to his incredible 2005 campaign, when he knocked 46 HR with a .338 AVG and 120 runs, but Lee sort-of bounced-back after an injury-ruined 2006 season. He hit .317 in 2007, but his HR and RBI numbers could have been better. One positive for him from last season, however, is the fact that he swatted 16 HR in the second-half, meaning he does have the potential to hit 30 HR.
2007 Stats: .259 AVG, 31 HR, 90 RBI, 71 R, 0 SB
Comment: The entire White Sox offense struggled mightily for most of the season, attributing to Konerko’s mediocre stat-line. The good news for fantasy owners is that the White Sox organization is adamant about once again becoming a contending team. They’ve gone out and added Orlando Cabrera and Carlos Quentin to help the offense and the development of players like Jerry Owens and Josh Fields should lead to a much better White Sox lineup for 2008. Konerko should rebound this season and drive in over 100 runs while hopefully getting his batting average back to the .280 range.
2007 Stats: .320 AVG, 17 HR, 91 RBI, 86 R, 0 SB
Comment: Helton’s 30 HR days appear to be over, but he still has significant fantasy value at age 34. With players like Troy Tulowitzki, Brad Hawpe, Garret Atkins and NL MVP Matt Holliday, the Rockies have built themselves a formidable middle of the order, one that Helton stands to benefit from. Don’t be surprised if he actually improves on last season’s numbers.
2007 Stats: .288 AVG, 16 HR, 83 RBI, 85 R, 4 SB
Comment: The Gold Glove winner provided an incredible amount of grit and plate patience to the 2007 World Series Champs, but fantasy owners shouldn’t think of him as a mere role player on draft day. Youkilis had career-highs in batting average, HR and RBI. The beauty of Youkilis’ game is his versatility. He can hit anywhere in the lineup, so if he’s given a bulk of at-bats in the two-hole, he’ll pick up a ton of runs with Big Papi and Manny Ramirez hitting behind him. If he bats fifth, he’ll drive in a ton of runs. It’s a win-win with Youkilis, who should continue to improve in 2008.
2007 Season: .258 AVG, 24 HR, 87 RBI, 71 R, 4 SB
Comment: Delgado enjoyed quite possibly the worst season of his career in 2007. The man’s going to be 36 in June and is coming off a horrid season. Delgado has some incentive to improve, however. The Mets have a club option for 2009 worth at least $12 million, so if he wants to prove that he is still worth double-digit millions, he will have to come back strong in 2008. Look, he’s still in a great lineup that will give him plenty of RBI opportunities. There were times last season where he looked poised to bust out of his slump with a couple of big games, only to slip again. The guy could top 30 HR and 100 RBI and is worth taking a chance on. Just make sure you have a back-up first baseman drafted as insurance.
2007 Stats: .347 AVG, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 16 R, 1 SB
Comment: Barton has to battle Dan Johnson for playing time, but if Barton’s play following his 2007 call-up suggests, he should get plenty of at-bats in 2008. He showed some nice power and based on his upside, Barton should be the everyday first baseman when it’s all said and done.
2007 Stats: .292 AVG, 8 HR, 52 RBI, 38 R, 0 SB
Comment: Played in just 92 games in his rookie season but still came away with solid numbers. Despite getting some time at first, Butler figures to slot in as the full-time DH for 2008. The Royals offense should be stronger with the development of Alex Gordon and the acquisition of Jose Guillen, so Butler could surprise a lot of people with a fantastic season.
2007 Stats: .321 AVG, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 11 R, 1 SB
Comment: We’ll have to see how new manager Dusty Baker plays it, but Joey Votto sho
Designated Hitters
March 20, 2008
By: Chris Starbonell
Update! Writer
Designated hitters are usually unattractive fantasy options. Since most fantasy leagues have just one or two utility slots, players with a DH tag leave little roster flexibility. But in the past couple of seasons, some big bats have gone from playing everyday positions in the field to full-time designated hitter roles. There are some strong bats in the DH pool, and Update! went ahead and ranked the top ten designated hitters heading into the 2008 season:
2007 Stats: .332 AVG, 35 HR, 117 RBI, 116 R, 3 SB
Comment: Ortiz finally looked like he was slowing down heading into the All Star break, having belted just six HR total in May and June. Sox officials then revealed that he was playing on a bum knee that would require surgery; fantasy owners figured he would taper off as the season wore on. That was not the case. Big Papi finished with career-highs in batting average and even stolen bases! All right, so three swiped bags isn’t much, but the fact that he turned in a terrific fantasy season despite playing hurt is great news for owners heading into 2008. Ortiz had off-season surgery to repair the knee and is expected to be at full health for the start of the season.
2007 Stats: .266 AVG, 24 HR, 100 RBI, 80 R, 1 SB
Comment: While Hafner did manage to drive in over 100 runs for the fourth consecutive season, he also hit below .300 and scored under 90 runs for the first time during that span. He took off in September (.316, five HR, 23 RBI) but that was before he really stumbled in the post-season, ending with a meager .186 AVG in the playoffs. Hafner shouldn’t be ignored or anything in 2008 drafts, but after a season like last year, maybe he truly peaked in 2006.
2007 Stats: .265 AVG, 25 HR, 75 RBI, 107 R, 22 SB
Comment: When Sheffield was healthy, he was a dangerous bat in the Tigers lineup. He started off the season terribly, batting .200 in April before becoming one of the best contributors in fantasy baseball between May and July. Shoulder woes took a toll on him late in the season and Sheffield had off-season surgery to try to patch it up. He’s been dealing with shoulder injuries for what has felt like forever, so he definitely is an injury-risk for 2008. But in Detroit’s potent offense, Sheffield could put up beastly numbers this season.
2007 Stats: .275 AVG, 35 HR, 96 RBI, 79 R, 0 SB
Comment: Thome enjoyed another productive season with the Chicago White Sox in 2007 and that was with a lineup that had a hard time mustering runs for most of the year. Chicago should be better heading into 2008, so Thome could improve on last season’s numbers. He did miss 32 games in 2007 and is turning 38 in Aug., but Thome should still be a nice fantasy option at the DH spot.
2007 Stats:.277 AVG, 26 HR, 95 RBI, 63 R, 0 SB
Comment: The Big Hurt played in 155 games last season, the most since 2000 when he played in 159 games with the Chicago White Sox. He closed the 2007 campaign out especially strong, hitting .325 with 10 HR and 41 RBI in the final two months of the season. Thomas is turning 40 in May, but needs 469 plate appearances this year in order for his 2009 option to kick in. If he’s healthy, he should swat about 30 HR in 2008.
2007 Stats: .236 AVG, 14 HR, 39 RBI, 31 R, 1 SB
Comment: Giambi was limited to just 83 games in 2007, as injuries again affected his game. He’s entering a walk-year in 2008, but his playing time is in jeopardy. He’s going to have to share time at DH with Hideki Matsui, and the Yankees have Shelly Duncan and Wilson Betemit to use at first base. Giambi’s playing time is likely going to be predicated on how he performs. If he swings a hot stick, the Yankees are going to find a way to get him at-bats. If he struggles, however, things will be much cloudier.
2007 Stats: .240 AVG, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 19 R, 1 SB
Comment: Botts played well during Winter League play and is hoping to land a starting gig with Texas for the start of the 2008 season. He has tremendous power potential and could fill in the DH role, vacated by Sammy Sosa, nicely. He can play the outfield as well, but because the Rangers acquired Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradely, there probably isn’t enough room for him out there. If Botts wins an everyday job out of Spring Training, he could be an excellent source of HR and RBI in 2008.
2007 Stats: .244 AVG, 17 HR, 49 RBI, 48 R, 12 SB
Comment: It was a bit disappointing that the Rays signed veteran Cliff Floyd to a one-year deal. It looked like Gomes was sure to get more playing time after Tampa Bay sent Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes packing. Don’t worry too much though. Because Rocco Baldelli and Floyd are injury-prone, Gomes figures to at least match his 348 at-bats from last season. He’s shown nice power in the past and a 25 HR season wouldn’t be surprising.
2007 Stats: .280 AVG, 15 HR, 72 RBI, 68 R, 1 SB
Comment: Outside of an outstanding August (.363 AVG, 8 HR, 19 RBI and 19 R), Huff was merely okay during the 2007 season. Huff is 31-years old and underwent off-season sports hernia surgery in mid-January. The Orioles aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts heading into 2008, so don’t expect a return to his 30 HR / 100 RBI days of 2003 and 2004.
Seattle Mariners
2007 Stats: .314 AVG, 6 HR, 59 RBI, 78 R, 0 SB
Comment: Serving as a full-time DH for the first time in his career, Vidro benefited greatly. He managed to play in 147 games in 2007 - the most since 2002. And while the HR and RBI numbers were not typical DH figures, he still helped the team out a lot. His .314 batting average last season was his best mark in five years and he should provide similar stats in 2008. age 26.
Texas Rangers
Comment: A little too old to be a true prospect (28 in July), but Botts should get a real crack at playing consistently in 2008.
Free Agent
Comment: Sosa’s status for 2008 is up in the air, as no teams seems willing to sign him. He may be forced to retire if interest in him remains ice-cold.
New York Yankees
Comment: Yankees’ fans will be popping champagne at the end of the 2008 season to celebrate the end of Giambi’s $120 million contract.
TRAVIS HAFNER
Cleveland Indians
Comment: In July of 2007, Hafner signed a four-year, $52 million extension that has him locked up with Cleveland until at least 2012.
Relief Pitchers
March 20, 2008
By: Chris Starbonell
Update! Writer
It’s an old adage, repeatedly exclaimed by fantasy experts every season: don’t draft closers too early. The logic generally stems from the high turnover rate of the position, inconsistencies from year to year and their dimished impact on several categories (strikeouts, wins, etc.). Basically, you do not want to risk a third or fourth-round draft pick on someone with such volatile properties. While this philosophy does carry weight, it is important to note that many fantasy owners take this “don’t draft closers early” mantra too far, mistakenly waiting too long and ending up stuck with the likes of Armando Benitez. Sure, you’ll have plenty of opportunities to add closers throughout the season, but you don’t want to rely on the waiver wire alone. Free agent fantasy additions should be more about deepening your bullpen rather than building one. With that in mind, here are the top 30 closers heading into this season:
2007 Stats: 1-3, 37 SV, 58.1 IP, 1.85 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 84 SO
Comment: No one needs to worry about Papelbon moving to the starting rotation anytime soon. In his second season working in the closer’s role, Papelbon once again put up sick numbers. The World Series Champion Red Sox are going to win a lot of games in 2008, so Papelbon should top the 40 save mark with ease. Draft him with the utmost confidence.
2007 Stats: 5-2, 40 SV, 67.1 IP, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 90 SO
Comment: Last season, he sported a career-low 1.25 WHIP and his 2007 ERA was his highest mark since posting a 3.03 ERA in 2003. This might seem like nit-picking, but for Rodriguez, those are just OK numbers. Seeing as he is just 26-years-old, Rodriguez is probably not headed for a decline. But he’ll need to bounce back to re-establish himself as the top of the relief pitching position.
2007 Stats: 6-1, 40 SV, 71.2 IP, 1.38 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 82 SO
Comment: Most were skeptical about how he would handle ninth-inning duties in 2007 after breaking out in 2006, but Putz once again finished the season as a premiere closer. He was bothered late in the season by arm troubles (tightness in his right triceps) but is presumed to be fine for spring training. Putz will be 31 in Feb., which is a concern since he has only had two great seasons in the big leagues, but those two seasons have been too dominant to ignore.
2007 Stats: 3-5, 40 SV, 65 IP, 2.77 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 56 SO
Comment: Jenks enjoyed the best season of his career thus far with a fine 2007. He closed the year out especially well, giving up just three earned runs in the final two months of the season. It’s somewhat discouraging that his strikeout numbers dropped noticeably after he whiffed 80 in 2006, but it’s clear that he’s stepped up his game overall. Chicago added Scott Linebrink in the off-season so Jenks should have a better bridge to bring him leads late in games. That should translate to another 40 save season.
2007 Stats: 4-2, 37 SV, 71.2 IP, 1.88 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 77 SO
Comment: Nathan is entering his fifth season as the Twins closer and is in walk-year status. As his 2007 suggests, he should be in for a nice-pay day following this season. The Twins know this and they are expected to shop Nathan around to see what they can get for him. It would be a shame if he were dealt to a contending team that acquires him to be a set-up man, particularly if you waste a fantasy draft pick on him before the season began. This presents a bit of risk with Nathan, but if he pitches in the ninth inning for all of 2008, history shows that he’ll finish amongst the top closers in the game.
2007 Stats: 2-1, 39 SV, 64.1 IP, 1.40 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 78 SO
Comment: Despite dealing with hamstring and shoulder ailments, Saito put together another impressive season with a dynamite 2007. Saito has had great numbers the past couple years, but he’ll be 38 in February and with Jonathan Broxton breathing down his neck, he’ll have little room for failure. Another negative for Saito this season is the presence of new manager Joe Torre. Torre is notorious for blowing out bullpen arms by overworking his relievers, and with Saito’s age an injury could be imminent. If he’s healthy all season, Saito should again be amongst the best closers in fantasy baseball. Just keep in mind that he comes with some risk.
2007 Stats: 2-2, 34 SV, 68.1 IP, 2.63 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 80 SO
Comment: Wagner looked like he was headed for a huge 2007 after a fantastic start (first half: 1-0, 17 SV, 1.64 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 51 SO in 38.1 IP). His second-half, however, was flat-out bad (1-2, 17 SV, 3.90 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 29 SO in 30 IP). His overall season ERA, WHIP and strikeouts were his worst since 2001. Wagner is turning 37 in July, so he may be on the decline. As long as his ERA stays under 3.00 and he accumulates over a strikeout-per-inning, he should remain a nice closer option for the competing Mets in 2008.
2007 Stats: 3-4, 30 SV, 71.1 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 74 SO
Comment: It’s peculiar that Rivera became the highest-paid closer of all time after one of the worst statistical seasons of his career. The fact that he’s 38-years old is a concern, but the Yankees are obviously going to keep him in the closer’s role. He still had solid numbers and has been incredibly reliable in his career. When you’re closing games for a perennial contender like the Yankees, the saves are going to come. Just because he hasn’t had 40 saves in the past two seasons does not mean he can’t reach that mark in 2008.
2007 Stats: 4-5, 42 SV, 57.1 IP, 2.98 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 44 SO
Comment: Hoffman finished the regular season very poorly, giving up 12 ER in 21.1 innings during the final two months of the season, including blown saves in the Padres final two games — effectively ending their 2007 season. This is the last year of his current contract, so Hoffman will probably have to turn in another effective season in order to prove that he can still close games. That being said, the Padres aren’t going to shy away from him in the ninth inning if he has a couple of bad games, so he should be safe to use in 2008.
2007 Stats: 1-4, 47 SV, 64.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 78 SO
Comment: Enjoyed the best season of his career in 2007 with the Diamondbacks. Now with the Astros, Valverde will have a hard-time breaking 40 saves for the second consecutive year. Aside from his inconsistency issues prior to this season, he’s going from an up-and-coming team that went to the NLCS in 2007, to a team with that was among the worst in baseball. The Astros have improved their offense on paper, so they shouldn’t be as bad as they were in 2008. If Valverde can stay healthy, he should be able to garner 30-plus saves with solid overall numbers.
2007 Stats: 3-3, 37 SV, 75 IP, 3.36 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 62 SO
Comment: The fantasy community was pretty disappointed with Cordero’s 2007 season given his talent. But the guy still ended up with 37 saves on the Washington Nationals (who won only 73 games all season). Sure the 1.39 WHIP was ugly last season, but the Nationals have made it clear that Cordero is still the closer, no matter how much he struggles. That’s encouraging heading into 2008 as Washington should win more games thanks to their fervent activity this off-season. 40 saves may actually be a real possibility this season and at age 25 (he’ll be 26 in March), Cordero is still capable of turning in a brilliant season.
2007 Stats: 0-4, 52 SV, 63.2 IP, 2.98 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 86 SO
Comment: Cordero picked the perfect time to have the best season of his career as he cashed in on a deal with the Reds. His numbers seem bound to suffer at least a little as he’s moving to one of the smallest home-run parks in all of baseball. The Reds seem committed to winning as evidenced by the signing of manager Dusty Baker, but who knows how much they’ll improve on a 72-win season. The good thing about Cordero is that he should be in no jeopardy of losing the closer’s gig thanks to the big contract. So long as you understand that his ERA may rise in the smaller home stadium, feel free to draft Cordero and expect 30-plus saves this season.
2007 Stats: 4-2, 19 SV, 78 IP, 2.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 58 SO
Comment: Corpas took over closing duties for three-time All Star Brian Fuentes in July and he didn’t look back when given the keys to the ninth-inning gig. He finished the season with an impressive overall stat-line. As of right now, it appears as if the Rockies are going to go with Corpas as their closer to start 2008. Of course, should he falter, Colorado could always go back to Fuentes, who has 85 career saves. This presents a great risk for fantasy owners looking to draft Corpas. But as long as he maintains his effectiveness from 2007 and staves off Fuentes, he should be a great option at the relief pitching positions for the National League Champion Rockies.
2007 Stats: 4-7, 18 SV, 79 IP, 2.28 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 64 SO
Comment: Capps big-frame proved intimidating in 2007 as he produced great numbers while being named the closer in June. At age 24, Capps looks like the real deal and Pittsburgh has heard plenty of teams come calling about his services. The Pirates are reportedly going to try to lock him up with a multi-year contract. Should Capps remain a closer in Pittsburgh, he probably won’t see 40 saves, but he should provide another great season overall.
2007 Season: 3-3, 9 SV, 72 IP, 3.00 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 70 SO
Comment: While he only has 13 career saves, Soriano is being thrust into the closer’s role for Atlanta in 2008. He’s got great stuff and fantasy owners should not shy away from him just because of his inexperience. His overall season line of 2007 looks pretty good, but it does not tell the whole story. When pitching in the ninth inning, he held opposing batters to an insane .099 batting average. The Braves might have a tough time putting him in a situation to get 40 saves, but Soriano has the make-up to have a big season and make the most of his save opportunities.
2007 Stats: 2-3, 17 SV, 69 IP, 2.48 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 75 SO
Comment: Soria enjoyed an impressive rookie campaign in 2007, being used in the closer’s role while Octavio Dotel was out before being given the job for good following Dotel’s trade to Atlanta. He’s turning 24 in May and has a bright future ahead of him. The Royals may not look like a team good enough to give him a ton of save chances, but don’t judge a book by its cover. The team had 36 saves last season from seven different players, meaning that Soria should be good for about 30 if he stays healthy.
2007 Stats: 4-0, 32 SV, 65.1 IP, 2.48 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 54 SO
Comment: Following a let down 2006, in which Isringhausen dealt with injury virtually all season, the veteran closer came back strong in 2007. The Cardinals picked up their option on Izzy for the 2008 season and he is due to be a free agent after this season. He’s no spring chicken (35-years old), but Isringhausen could earn a multi-year deal following this season if he turns in another solid campaign.
2007 Stats: 5-2, 16 SV, 50 IP, 2.88 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 63 SO
Comment: The 2005 AL Rookie of the Year was rather injury-prone in 2007 after two straight seasons of pitching 70-plus innings. He’s got the talent to be a top closer, but the A’s are no longer the competitive team they once were, meaning less save chances for Street. Since Oakland seems to be chugging towards a rebuilding era, Street may be dealt at some point. If he lands a closer’s job elsewhere, his value would gain a nice boost. Of course, any team that may acquire him could put Street in a set-up role.
2007 Stats: 5-3, 19 SV, 67 IP, 3.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 88 SO
Comment: The Phillies got Lidge for cheap in the off-season, but while many are giddy at the prospects of Lidge returning to his former dominant self, fantasy owners should proceed with caution. Keep in mind that Lidge will now be playing home games in tiny Citizen’s Bank Park. If the fragility of his psyche is still an issue, he could be a game-winning HR away from a total implosion. Philadelphia still has Tom Gordon and Brett Myers on staff, so they have alternatives to Lidge if he can’t stand the pressure of playing for the reigning NL East Champion Phillies.
2007 Stats: 4-2, 16 SV, 52 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 51 SO
Comment: Gagne was signed to close games for the Brewers, but those of us who witnessed his awful showing in Boston last season (2-2, 0 SV, 6.75 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 22 SO in 18.7 IP) know that he has meltdown potential. It’s not encouraging that Milwaukee has Derrick Turnbow, David Riske and Salomon Torres throwing in the bullpen; all of them have closing experience. Since Gagne is signed to a one-year deal, the team may not feel it necessary to stick with him in the closer’s role if he struggles mightily, particularly if they are competing for the playoffs. He’ll probably have a decent leash on the job, but have some insurance on your roster in case he falters.
2007 Stats: 1-2, 6 SV, 23.2 IP, 2.28 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 18 SO
Comment: The future is now for Brian Wilson, who will battle Brad Hennessey and Tyler Walker for the closer’s gig in San Francisco. He was effective last season when given the opportunity to close and this spring training, there shouldn’t be much of a competition. Wilson is clearly the better option in the bullpen and he should begin the season as the Giants closer.
2007 Stats: 5-4, 2 SV, 85.1 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 63 SO
Comment: The Diamondbacks established themselves as a competitive force in the NL West and with their group of young, gifted players, they should remain competitive in 2008. One of those young stars, Tony Pena, would be a terrific option to fill the vacant closer’s seat left by traded reliever Jose Valverde. In his first full-season, Pena opened eyes with his ability to get hitters out. Unfortunately, Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin named Brandon Lyon the closer heading into spring training, but given Pena’s talent, don’t be surprised if he usurps Lyon in the role.
2007 Stats: 5-1, 69.2 IP, 1.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 96 SO
Comment: We all know that the Cubs re-signed Kerry Wood to a one-year deal with the intention of trying him out as their closer. But judging from the past few seasons, banking on Kerry Wood to be healthy all year is a loser’s bet. Anyone who saw the Cubs bullpen last season knows that Marmol was far and away their best pitcher. If Wood has any issues staying healthy (and he will), Marmol would be the favorite to collect saves for the Cubs. Even as a set-up man, he’s great for fantasy purposes.
2007 Stats: 1-4, 38 SV, 61.1 IP, 4.26 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 33 SO
Comment: Jones signed a one-year, $7 million contract to stay with Detroit in 2008, but that was probably more out of desperation on Detroit’s part. With Joel Zumaya out at least half the season, the Tigers had to retain Jones. The good thing for fantasy owners here is that manager Jim Leyland has stuck by Jones through tough times even when Zumaya and Fernando Rodney were clearly outperforming him. There’s no reason to think Leyland won’t continue to stand by Jones.
2007 Stats: 4-4, 2 SV, 82 IP, 2.85 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 99 SO
Comment: Dodgers closer Takashi Saito is pushing 40 and showed some fragility in 2007. If Saito goes down because of injury, Broxton could finally get his shot to close full-time in 2008. The monstrous Broxton has the talent to be a top closer for fantasy owners, though if new L.A. manager Joe Torre does indeed blows out Saito’s arm, it’s possible that Broxton would be next on Joe’s hit list.
2007 Stats: 4-5, 65.2 IP, 5.07 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 58 SO
Comment: He led the AL in saves last season, but Borowski’s age (37 in May) and season ERA in 2007 bode poorly for his chances in 2008. He also has a ton of competition waiting to take his job in Mashide Kobayashi, Rafael Perez and Rafael Betancourt. Let’s face it, the Indians bullpen was a strength last season and it had little to do with Borowski’s adventurous style of garnering saves. The only good thing going for him is the fact that Indians manager Eric Wedge showed tremendous loyalty to Borowski in 2007. If Borowski struggles, Wedge could do the same in 2008.
2007 Stats: 2-1, 12 SV, 68.1 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 63 SO
Comment: Wilson is the front-runner for the closer’s job in Texas. He needs to be tracked in spring training as the Rangers may decide to put Joaquin Benoit in the role if Wilson struggles, but that seems a long shot to happen. Texas should be considerably better in 2008 thanks to their busy off-season that saw them make improvements to their offense. Wilson hit his peak in July, when he gave up all of two ER all month long, before stumbling some at the end of the season. He could far exceed his draft day value in 2008 so fantasy owners can consider him a sleeper for saves.
2007 Stats: 0-5, 32 SV, 84 IP, 3.54 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8