NFL Fantasy Preview: Wide Receivers

Randy Moss looks to duplicate his record-setting 2007 campaign [PHOTO BY ICON SMI]

BY MICHAEL GANCI
UPDATE! Writer

TOP 15

1.    Randy Moss

New England Patriots

2007: 98 CATCH, 1,493 YDS, 15.2 AVG, 23 TD

Comments: Saying that last season was a comeback year for Moss would be an understatement. He was unbelievable in a near-perfect season for New England. Although we don’t expect his numbers to be quite as explosive this season, he should still be the top wideout in fantasy.

2.    Chad Johnson

Cincinnati Bengals

2007: 93 CATCH, 1,440 YDS, 15.5 AVG, 8 TD

Comments: Johnson’s year was very much overshadowed by the dynamic year that Randy Moss had in New England, but Chad was just as good. People may have initially been nervous about Ocho Cinco in the offseason, but as expected, Johnson showed up to camp and he is expected to be on a mission to prove his worth. Expect similar numbers to last season and probably more touchdowns.

3.    Braylon Edwards

Cleveland Browns

2007: 80 CATCH, 1,289 YDS, 16.1 AVG, 16 TD

Comments: Edwards is coming off of a career year in which he caught 16 TDs. Derek Anderson’s emergence is a huge reason why he had such a successful season. As long as he can stay healthy, he should remain an elite fantasy option in all formats. Expect him to be drafted around round three or four.

4.    Terrell Owens

Dallas Cowboys

2007: 81 CATCH, 1,355 YDS, 16.7 AVG, 15 TD

Comments: Despite the negatives that Terrell Owens brings with him, he is still one of the top receivers to play this game. He is honest and speaks his mind, which the Cowboys would rather he didn’t. Either way, he still remains Tony Romo’s favorite target, and is a top receiver in all formats.

5.    Larry Fitzgerald

Arizona Cardinals

2007: 100 CATCH, 1,409 YDS, 14.1 AVG, 10 TD

Comments: Fitzgerald has been excellent every other season thus far, but I expect that streak to break. In 2007, he had pretty much the same numbers as he did in 2005. With Matt Leinart on a mission to prove himself as an able starting quarterback, Fitzgerald will continue to be a top target. Expect him to duplicate his numbers of last season. 

6.    Marques Colston

New Orleans Saints

2007: 98 CATCH, 1,202 YDS, 12.3 AVG, 11 TD

Comments: Colston might have been the biggest beneficiary of the arrival of Drew Brees in New Orleans. He has only played two seasons and has been very productive. I expect this to be his best season, and he, like Braylon Edwards, will be drafted in the third or fourth round.

7.    Torry Holt

St. Louis Rams

2007: 93 CATCH, 1,189 YDS, 12.8 AVG, 7 TD

Comments: Holt is coming off of a season in which his knee was sore, so that has to be counted on for his production being a little bit down. Despite the fact that he is on the downside of his career, he is still capable of putting up good numbers. Look for another 7 TD, 1,000 yard season for Marc Bulger’s favorite target.

8.    Wes Welker

New England Patriots

2007: 112 CATCH, 1,175 YDS, 10.5 AVG, 8 TD

Comments: No one has benefitted more from the New England Patriots’ system than Wes Welker, Before 2007, he never had more than 67 catches in a season, but he nearly doubled that number in 2007. Look for him to be a low number one or a high end number two wide receiver who will go sometime around round three or four.

9.    Calvin Johnson

Detroit Lions

2007: 48 CATCH, 756 YDS, 15.8 AVG, 4 TD

Comments: Jonson was bothered by a back injury last season which hampered his performance. Although he has been bothered early on by a sore leg, his upside is tremendous. He has the potential for 70 catches and 1,000 yards. Give him a chance in round six to eight.

10.Andre Johnson

Houston Texans

2007: 60 CATCH, 851 YDS, 14.2 AVG, 8 TD

Comments: Johnson’s numbers are unbelievable, considering the fact that he only played in nine games in 2007. If you scale that to a 16-game season, he would have accumulated 15 TDs and 1,000-plus yards. He may be an injury risk, but who isn’t? Give him a chance in round four or five.

11.Jerricho Cotchery

New York Jets

2007: 82 CATCH, 1,130 YDS, 13.8 AVG, 2 TD

Comments: After having his breakthrough season in 2006, Cotchery did not disappoint in 2007. With Brett Favre as his new quarterback, his numbers stand to increase even more, making him a solid number two receiver option in all formats.

12.Reggie Brown

Philadelphia Eagles

2007: 61 CATCH, 780 YDS, 12.8 AVG, 4 TD

Comments: Brown has yet to have that really big season, but I am looking for 2008 to be that year for him. It is known that Donovan McNabb loves throwing to him, so that makes him a plus option. He is another guy who has been hampered by injury in the pre season, so his health will be the ultimate determinant.

13.Derrick Mason

Baltimore Ravens

2007: 103 CATCH, 1,087 YDS, 10.6 AVG, 5 TD

Comments: You’d think that with these numbers, I would be a major advocate for putting Mason higher in the top 15,. But that isn’t so. I am too uncomfortable with the quarterback situation in Baltimore to give him that kind of endorsement. Who is the starter? Will it be Joe Flacco or Kyle Boller? Either way, I expect Mason to have a good season. But don’t expect thestats he put up during last year’s campaign.

14.Santonio Holmes

Pittsburgh Steelers

2007: 52 CATCH, 942 YDS, 18.2 AVG, 8 TD

Comments: While those numbers aren’t exactly jumping off of the page, you have to remember that Holmes was limited to only 13 games last season. If you add three more games of production, his numbers would obviously be much better. With a great young quarterback and a good young receiver core, there is no reason that Holmes will be a let down this season.

15.Anquan Boldin

Arizona Cardinals

2007: 71 CATCH, 853 YDS, 12.0 AVG 9 TD

Comments: Boldin missed four games because of injuries last season but still tallied 71 receptions for 853 yards and a career-high nine touchdowns. His hamstring is a little bit tender, and with his injury track record, I wouldn’t take that lightly. He has the potential to be a nice high end number two receiver in mixed leagues.

JUST SAY NO

1.    Donald Driver

Green Bay Packers

2007: 82 CATCH, 1,048 YDS, 12.8 AVG, 2 TD

Comments: Driver only managed two touchdowns in the regular season, and that is despicable, considering the fact that he was Brett Favre’s favorite target when Favre was a Packer. Greg Jennings has surpassed him as the go-to guy in Green Bay. Driver is a low end number two fantasy wide receiver, but I expect 2008 to be a year of decline for him.

2.    Bobby Engram

Seattle Seahawks

2007: 94 CATCH, 1,147 YDS, 12.2 AVG, 6 TD

Comments: Before last season, Engram had never surpassed 987 yards receiving, and that was in 1998 when he was a member of the Chicago Bears. The unpleasant news that he has a cracked shoulder makes him a bad option because he will be out for six to eight weeks, and who knows how long it will take him to regain form.

Free Agent Rundown

This off-season seems to be leading up to an interesting draft. I have decided to take the best players available at each position and evaluate where they’ll likely end up next season and why. Many people will be changing their home addresses, but the question remains, who will they be?:

Comment: Anderson has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the game in recent years, lost behind the big stars like Tom Brady, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers. In 21 career games, the 24-year-old has 29 touchdown passes and already has amassed over 4,500 yards in the air. The Browns need to do all they can to keep him. If he is allowed to get away, Atlanta would seem like the most logical fit. They’re desperate for a clean-cut, dynamic quarterback to make the Michael Vick debacle harmlessy dissipate. Unappreciated in Cleveland, I think Anderson will be the first player to find a new home this off-season.
Teams in Need: Miami, Baltimore, NY Jets, Chicago, Atlanta, Tampa Bay
QBs to Watch: Rex Grossman, Daunte Culpepper, Josh McCown, Quinn Gray

Comment: Finally, the backup for LaDainian Tomlinson will be able to emerge as a powerhouse of his own. Last season, several teams had their eyes on him, but the Chargers put a high tender on him. The team most aggressive in their pursuit was the New York Jets, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they push to sign him again. The 26-year-old has averaged 5.5 yards per carry in limited playing time behind Tomlinson, but I think he could emerge as one of the game’s premier backs. My pick for where he lands is Dallas, because both Marion Barber and Julius Jones are headed for restricted free agency and Turner would fit their offensive style.
Teams in Need: Atlanta, NY Jets, Dallas, Detroit, Arizona, Houston
RBs to Watch: Marion Barber, Jamal Lewis, Julius Jones, Chris Brown

Comment: Moss set the NFL record with 23 touchdowns last season. Along with 98 catches and 1,493 yards in his first year in New England, this made Moss the most dangerous wide receiver in the NFL. He would be in for a monstrous payday if he leaves the Patriots. If Moss is franchised by the Patriots, look for the newly-behaved superstar to show some signs of immaturity. This could be a messy situation if the Patriots let it get that far, but I don’t believe they will. I think they will come to terms on a deal that would make Moss the NFL’s highest paid receiver, and more importantly, keep Moss in Foxboro for many years to come.
Teams in Need: Miami, Atlanta, Oakland, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Carolina
WRs to Watch: Bernard Berrian, Patrick Crayton, Bryant Johnson, Justin Gage

Comment: Johnson finds himself as the best tight end available following the Philadelphia Eagles decision to franchise L.J. Smith. In seven years of NFL play, the 28-year-old Johnson has amassed just 71 catches, for a grand total of 2,178 yards. Plenty of teams have a need at the tight end position. Look for him to land in a spot where he’ll start, but dont count on reliable fantasy production from him in 2008. Look for him to land in Cincinnati; his blocking ability and receiving skills looks like a perfect match for what Carson Palmer likes in a target. Plus, he may need to pick up the slack if Chad Johnson is eventually traded.
Teams in Need: Cincinnati, Detroit, Seattle, Green Bay
TEs to Watch: Stephen Alexander, Bryan Fletcher, John Gilmore, Marcus Pollard

Comment: For everyone around the league, it seems like Faneca has been around the game forever. But Faneca is only 31 years old, and he is one of the game’s best players at his position. He will have many teams salivating due to his ability to protect the quarterback and open up holes for the run. Another interesting thing to note abut the pro-bowler is that in 10 NFL seasons, the least amount of games Faneca has played in any one season has been 15, meaning that he will be healthy and he can be that anchor for the offensive line. My pick for Faneca is the Kansas City Chiefs, and hopefully he will be able to protect whomever the quarterback may be, and help to turn that franchise around.
Teams in Need: St. Louis, Kansas City, NY Jets, Baltimore, Chicago, Minnesota
OLs to Watch: Ruben Brown, Flozell Adams, Jordan Gross, Max Starks

Comment: It’s probably a matter of time before the Tennessee Titans decide to throw the franchise tag on this one-time pro-bowler. In six professional seasons, Haynesworth has amassed 220 total tackles, making him one of the better defensive specialists in the game. His ability to power his way through offensive linemen to get to the quarterback is uncanny. The 26-year-old also set a career high last season with six sacks, doubling his previous career high of three, set in 2005. Look for him to be franchised this year and for the big fella to hit the open market following the season.
Teams in Need: Miami, Atlanta, Oakland, Baltimore, New Orleans, Buffalo, Denver
DLs to Watch: Jared Allen, Justin Smith, Terrell Suggs, Mike Rucker

Comment: Lance Brings’ situation changed completely when the news about Brian Urlacher’s back surgery broke. It looks more likely now that the Bears are interested in bringing the big linebacker back. Briggs will likely be franchised, which will probably upset him seeing as he was due a big payday in free agency. I would imagine that the Bears are going to try to agree on a long-term deal, but details won’t be able to be worked out. Since I am not optimistic about the Bears performing well next season, I believe the Bears will sign Briggs and then trade him mid-season when Urlacher proves he is healthy.
Teams in Need: Philadelphia, Houston, Arizona, Detroit, Washington, Pittsburgh
LBs to Watch: Teddy Bruschi, Karlos Dansby, Boss Bailey, Kawika Mitchell

Comment: Surely the best free agent defensive back on the market, Samuel is sure to arise interest out of many teams, most notably the Jets, who tried to make a run at the defensive specialist just one off-season ago. With 16 interceptions in the last two seasons, Samuel is due a hefty raise, and the Jets have the cap room. With Eric Mangini at the helm (a man who Samuel likes) this seems to be the perfect match. I would expect Samuel (who had 44 tackles last season) to be wearing Green and White once workouts come around.
Teams in Need: NY Jets, Miami, St. Louis, Kansas City, New England
DBs to Watch: Mike Doss, Drayton Florence, Randall Gay, Marcus Trufant

Comment: Bironas seemed to emerge out of nowhere this season for the Titans. In his first three years in the league, Bironas has hit over 83 percent of his kicks for Tennessee, which definitely makes him worthy of signing a long term contract. Actually, according to the Tennessean, the Titans and the agent for kicker Rob Bironas have been in discussions about a long-term contract for the Pro Bowler. My prediction is that Bironas will sign a five-year deal to remain with Vince Young and company.
Teams in Need: Atlanta, Tennessee
STs to Watch: Josh Brown, Dave Rayner