NFL Fantasy Preview: Quarterbacks

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Carson Palmer is ready to show the NFL that he is an elite quarterback
[PHOTO BY ICON SMI]

BY MICHAEL GANCI
UPDATE! Writer

Quarterbacks do not grow on trees. You can’t just trust anyone to be your number one quarterback, and you need to look at more than just reputation alone. Just because a QB had a successful 2007 doesn’t mean he will repeat that performance in 2008. There are many things that factor into a quarterback’s success, including the cast of characters he has to work with. Below, UPDATE! will show you who you should buy on, who you should stay away from and who you should sleep on.

HOT 15

1. Peyton Manning

Indianapolis Colts

2007: 337-515, 4,040 YDS, 31 TD, 14 INT

Comments: While 2007 was the first year since 2003 in which Peyton did not exceed a 100 passer rating, he still put up exceptional numbers for his position. He connected on 31 touchdown passes for the second straight season, and he did so a lot of the time without his biggest weapon: Marvin Harrison. Harrison’s health is big in terms of Manning’s production. Also, Harrison being healthy opens up Reggie Wayne for some passes. Manning can be counted on for 30 touchdowns and almost 4,000 yards, which are the numbers he puts up every season. Even though Tom Brady had a monster year last season, Manning continues to be the number one quarterback in fantasy.

2. Tom Brady

New England Patriots

2007: 398-578, 4,806 YDS, 50 TD, 8 INT

Comments: 2007 was an awesome season, even for Tom Brady. He shattered the record by throwing 50 touchdowns during the season. He found a new favorite target in Randy Moss. Brady also amassed over 4,800 yards in the air. He figures to not repeat those numbers because the coaching staff seems to have more faith in Lawrence Maroney going into the season. He will still be good for 3,500 yards and upwards of 30 touchdowns.

3. Tony Romo

Dallas Cowboys

2007: 335-520, 4,211 YDS, 36 TD, 19 INT

Comments: Romo has a lot going for him, and I am not even talking about Jessica Simpson. While sporting a 97 quarterback rating last season, Romo threw for 4,211 yards and completed 36 touchdown passes. He has the best defense in the NFL, so he will be on the field more than the average quarterback. He also has an elite wide receiver in Terrell Owens, and maybe the number one tight end in Jason Witten.

4. Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

2007: 440-652, 4,423 YDS, 28 TD, 18 INT

Comments: Brees, in terms of yardage, is coming off of his best year as a pro. He threw for 4,423 yards, and also had a career high in touchdowns with 28. One unflattering note about 2007 for Brees was his interception total, in which he accumulated 18. His completion percentage was the best it’s ever been, and with the addition of Jeremy Shockey, he now has that go-to option for third downs. Brees is an elite quarterback and there is no reason to think he will be anything less.

5. Carson Palmer

Cincinnati Bengals

2007: 373-575, 4,131 YDS, 26 TD, 20 INT

Comments: Palmer is coming off of a good season, but we all know he is capable of much better. He had the highest interception total of his career with 20, but his yards were a career high as well. He amassed 4,131 yards in the 16 games that he played. His QB rating was the lowest it has been since 2004, but Palmer has battled an array of injuries. His completion percentage was better, but he will tell you that he knows he can play at a higher level. Look for Palmer to have a breakout season, eclipsing 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. He will definitely be a top five QB in fantasy.

6. Ben Roethlisberger

Pittsburgh Steelers

2007: 264-404, 3,154 YDS, 32 TD, 11 INT

Comments: is coming off a breakout season, one in which he made the Pro Bowl and shattered a Steelers single-season record with 32 touchdown passes. The scary thing is that may not be his best, because he is still learning a new offensive scheme. He also accumulated over 3,100 yards and threw only 11 picks on the season. He is not as valuable as a Peyton Manning, Tom Brady or Tony Romo, but he is definitely on top of the next tear of quarterbacks. The 104 rating was the highest of his career, and there is no reason to believe that he won’t keep producing next season.

7. Matt Hasslebeck

Seattle Seahawks

2007: 352-562, 3,966 YDS, 28 TD, 12 INT

Comments: When people talk about the top quarterbacks in the NFL, Hasslebeck is often looked over for some reason. If you look at the numbers, he is right up there with the best of them. After an off year in 2006, Hasslebeck rebounded nicely, throwing 28 touchdowns against only 12 picks in 2007. The also amassed 3,966 yards, which is a career high for the former Green Bay Packer. He also proved that he is more than capable of completing the big pass. He tied a career high by completing seven passes of 40 yards or better. Hasslebeck is showing no signs of slowing down, and is a good option in all fantasy leagues.

8. Jay Cutler

Denver Broncos

2007: 297-467, 3,497 YDS, 20 TD, 14 INT

Comments: This is probably my surprise pick of the bunch. While he hasn’t fully proven himself yet, Cutler has the making to be one of the NFL’s top QB’s and this may be the year for him to break out. Remember, last year was his first full season, and he threw 20 touchdowns and 14 picks. The interception total needs to come down, but no one will complain with nearly 3,500 yards of production. Cutler has a nice young core of receivers, so he should have an even better year this season. Have faith in him.

9. Philip Rivers

San Diego Chargers

2007: 277-460, 3,152 YDS, 21 TD, 15 INT

Comments: Philip Rivers is coming off of his second full season as the starting quarterback, and this year was not as successful as the first. He threw for 200 yards less than 2006, and he also threw 6 more interceptions. He has a decent receiver core, and he is coming off of an injury. We will have to see if he is on top of his game. I think it’s going to be a rebound year for Philip. He will look to regain his form of 2006 in which he threw for 22 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. This is not the time to give up on him just yet. He is probably a guy who will go in the fourth or fifth round.

10. Donovan McNabb

Philadelphia Eagles

2007: 291-473, 3,324 YDS, 19 TD, 7 INT

Comment: Everyone in their right mind knows that Donovan McNabb still has the ability to be an elite quarterback in the NFL, but the key with him is health, and right now, that may be a concern. Although he keeps denying it, his right shoulder may be an issue. If he is right, he still remains a good fantasy option. Last year he started 14 games and threw 19 touchdowns against seven picks. He also tallied up 3,324 yards, which was his highest total since 2004. A lot of people are going to be afraid to draft him due to health concerns, so you may find him lying around in the fourth round. It is risky, but I believe it is a gamble that is worth taking.

11. Derek Anderson

Cleveland Browns

2007: 298-527, 3,787 YDS, 29 TD, 19 INT

Comments: Derek Anderson was the surprise of the year in 2007, and he put up some big numbers. He started all 16 games, and he totaled 29 touchdowns and over 3,700 yards. The two areas in which he would like to improve is his completion percentage, which was 56.5 percent last season, and his interceptions, in which he threw 19. Donte Stallworth joins a talent receiver crew that includes Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow and Joe Jurevicius, and having those guys as targets makes Anderson a low end number one quarterback. He will be available in the middle rounds, so don’t be afraid to take him.

12. Eli Manning

New York Giants

2007: 297-529, 3,336 YDS, 23 TD, 20 INT

Comments: Last year, Anthony Lamberti said that 2007 would be a year to define Eli Manning, and it sure was. People were questioning his integrity during the season, but an incredible run put those questions to rest. His numbers don’t scream Super Bowl Champion. He still has room for improvement. In 2007, Manning eclipsed 3,200 yards passing for the third straight season. He has also thrown at least 23 TDs in each of those seasons. One area in which Manning would like to improve upon is interceptions. The 20 he threw in 2007 was a career high for the young Manning. If he can minimize them, he will be a force. The loss of Jeremy Shockey hurts, but Manning is still a viable fantasy quarterback.

13. David Garrard

Jacksonville Jaguars

2007: 208-325, 2,509 YDS, 18 TD, 3 INT

Comments: Garrard played only 12 games last season, and that is because Byron Leftwich was released after four games as the team’s starter. The numbers that Garrard put up after that opened a lot of eyes around the NFL. In 12 games, Garrard threw 18 touchdowns and only three interceptions. He completed 64 percent of his passes and had an impressive 102.2 passer rating throughout the campaign. Adding Jerry Porter will help his value if the former Raider can stay healthy, and I look for Garrard to lead the Jaguars to success in the upcoming season. He could be a guy you might be able to wait until the fourth or fifth round to pick up. But, believe me, he will be worth it.

14. Jake Delhomme

Carolina Panthers

2007: 55-86, 624 YDS, 8 TD, 1 INT

Comments: Delhomme’s season was cut short last season due to injury, and he is looking to come back with a vengeance. He only participated in three regular season games, but he amassed 8 touchdowns while throwing only one interception. He has always been able to accumulate yards, and as a starter, he never threw under 2,800 yards in a season before last season was cut short. He is showing in camp that his injury is no longer hampering him, so he should be ready to go. He is a good number two fantasy option.

15. Matt Leinart

Arizona Cardinals

2007: 60-112, 647 YDS, 2 TD, 4 INT

Comments: When you have WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, you’re going to have a decent year. However, the offensive line is still better at run blocking, and Leinart can also be a health risk, so I wouldn’t rank him as high as you may expect. Leinart comes into 2008 as a No. 2 QB for fantasy because he doesn’t have the big ability yet. He is going to be pushed hard for the starting job by Kurt Warner, who continues to battle for a new contract, so whoever starts will hold this spot in the rankings. This could be the breakout year that is expected of Leinart. He will be available in the late rounds if you need a number two quarterback.

UPDATE! SLEEPERS

1. Trent Edwards

Buffalo Bills

2007: 151-269, 1,630 YDS, 7 TD, 8 INT

Comments: Edwards was hardly impressive in his first nine games as a starter in the NFL, but sometimes, good things take time. Edwards tried to do too much and he often got burned because of it. He threw seven picks against eight interceptions in those nine games, which is something that he will be looking to improve upon. He has a new addition in rookie WR James Hardy, but Edwards will not be a good option right away. You have to wait and see how guys like Lee Evans play before you can judge Edwards’ value, but this may be a guy to put on your sleeper list.

2. Tavaris Jackson

Minnesota Vikings

2007: 171-294, 1,911 YDS, 9 TD, 12 INT

Comments: Jackson didn’t have many consistent targets to throw to, and management tried to solve that problem by adding former Bears’ wide receiver Bernard Berrian. While he will certainly help Jackson progress, other guys are going to need to step up as well. Jackson nine touchdown, 12 interception ratio is something that is going to need to be fixed, but he is still very young. If you want to take a big chance, you can draft him late, but don’t waste a mid round pick on him. He may develop into a number two quarterback as the season wears on.

3. Vince Young

Tennessee Titans

2007: 238-382, 2,546 YDS, 9 TD, 17 INT

Comments: I have a feeling people are going to eat me alive for this pick, but let me explain myself. Vince Young has shown small flashes of brilliance since being drafted by the Tennessee Titans. The key to this season being different than the last two is the fact that he has a new favorite target, Alge Crumpler. With his ability to be mobile, receivers should be able to get open. The Titans’ offensive line still leaves much to be desired, but they added a couple of old faces on the team, including an old favorite of Tennessee fans, Justin McCareins. Maybe he will help Young as well. Only time will tell.

JUST SAY NO!

1. Jon Kitna

Detroit Lions

2007: 355-561, 4,068 YDS, 18 TD, 20 INT

Comments: If you are desperate for someone who can accumulate yards, Kitna is your man, but only then. Kitna is a guy who has some value when with Mike Martz, but that honeymoon has coincided, and Kitna has come back down to earth. I n2007, Kitna threw for over 4,000 yards and 18 touchdowns, but he also threw 20 picks. He is unlikely to have the same yardage success this year, and I would avoid him as a fantasy player. He hasn’t thrown for more than 21 touchdowns since 2003. Leave him alone.

2. Marc Bulger

St. Louis Rams

2007: 221-378, 2,392 YDS, 11 TD, 15 INT

Comments: For Bulger, he has all the tools to be a number one QB, but he has been showing signs of decline. In 2007, Bulger had no protection, and because of that he missed games because of rib and head injuries. The Rams are going to try to move to the fast-paced offense that helped them win the Super Bowl in 1999, but who knows what Bulger is capable of? He will look to regain his form of 2006, but I just don’t see it happening with the terrible offensive line that is in front of him.

3. Rex Grossman

Chicago Bears

2007: 122-225, 1,411 YDS, 4 TD, 7 INT

Comments: The only people who have benefitted from the production that Rex Grossman has put up in his career are the waiver wire people of 2006. For the people who continue to play, it is important to realize that 1006 was a mirage, and it is likely that Grossman will not even be the starter in Chicago this season. As of now, he is currently on an even playing field with Kyle Orton, who is getting his shot as well. Even if Grossman does win the job, he will be at best a low end number two QB, but is not really someone worth considering at all in fantasy.