Stock Watch

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July 21, 2008 · Print This Article

BY CHRIS STARBONELL
UPDATE! Writer

Every week UPDATE! will be putting together a list of note-worthy performances or events that have transpired in baseball. We’ll let you know what to get excited or nervous about while also providing fantasy insight.

BULLISH

ROBINSON CANO, New York Yankees, 2B

Comment: Once the season officially kicked off its second-half, Cano suddenly realized it was time to produce. His career post-All Star break numbers heading into 2008 (.334 AVG, 32 HR, 141 RBI, 124 R, 5 SB in 204 games) gave his fantasy owners a glimmer of hope during his horrible first-half showing. In New York’s opening second-half series against the Athletics, Cano went 8-for-14 with a homer, 3 RBI and 3 runs scored. He’s shown in the past that he’s capable of producing at a high level as the season wears on and those of you who held onto or traded for Cano could have a second-half fantasy beast in the Yankee second baseman.

FAUSTO CARMONA, Cleveland Indians, SP
Comment: This past Tuesday Carmona told the Cleveland News-Herald, “I’m ready.” After another solid effort in Double-A, he could return as soon as July 25th and is an intriguing player for the second-half. Since the start of 2007, Carmona has gone 23-10 in 42 starts with a 3.07 ERA, tantalizing numbers for fantasy owners to get excited about. Temper your expectations, however, as Carmona experienced issues with his control as evident by his 1.59 WHIP this season. He’s not a strikeout artist, so his fantasy value would be rendered useless if his ERA inflates as a result of poor command and the pathetic Indians offense cannot get him wins.

FERNANDO TATIS, New York Mets, OF
Comment: The Mets have been one of the hottest teams in baseball recently and Fernando Tatis has been a key player in the Mets’ success. During the month of July, Tatis is batting .378 with a .440 on-base percentage, 4 homers, 12 RBI, 8 runs and 1 stolen base. He’s been a standout player for the Mets since entering the starting lineup and with the way New York is playing; he could be a useful fantasy option for teams in need of an outfielder. Tatis is not likely to keep this up all season, but as a stopgap player, he makes sense right now.

RYAN ZIMMERMAN, Washington Nationals, 3B
Comment: Out since May 25th with a tear in his left shoulder, Ryan Zimmerman is due to return Tuesday to the Nationals lineup. He was batting .257 with 7 home runs and 27 RBI in 50 games this year before getting hurt. While he could be a solid third baseman for fantasy rosters going forward, he may not have too much power potential due to his shoulder, possibly making him a liability if he cannot get his average up. NL-only leaguers should definitely pick him up if he’s available, while mixed-league players can probably afford to wait at least a game or two to see if he can come back strong from his DL stint.

BEARISH

JACOBY ELLSBURY, Boston Red Sox, OF
Comment: The Boston Globe reported on Monday, “David Ortiz’s
return may have broader implications on the lineup than Terry Francona writing Ortiz’s name back in the No. 3 spot…It may give Francona an opportunity to address the alarming decline in production from rookie leadoff man Jacoby Ellsbury.” Since the beginning of June, Ellsbury has batted .242 with a .260 OBP, not the kind of numbers you expect from your leadoff hitter. When he has gotten on base, he has not been as effective as he was at the start of the year, registering just 2 steals in 6 attempts over his past 28 games. Ellsbury has elite steals potential, but if Ortiz’s presence bumps him from the lineup, his value will obviously take a serious hit.

TIM LINCECUM, San Francisco Giants, SP
Comment: Lincecum has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2008, but he could also be a serious sell-high candidate right now. Manager Bruce Bochy spoke on Lincecum last week stating, “He is somebody we’re going to keep an eye on and monitor him the second-half because we know his innings are going to be up there.” He pitched 177.1 innings last year between his time in the minors and majors and since he’s already reached 135.2 innings this season, he could see a serious drop in his innings pitched. Perhaps the workload is getting to him, over his past 7 starts Lincecum is 3-2 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He’s still striking guys out at an elite clip, but he may be more of a no. 3 or no. 4 option down the stretch rather than the no. 1 fantasy pitcher we’ve seen all season.

HIDEKI MATSUI, New York Yankees, OF
Comment: Matsui is going to have his left knee re-examined today and a decision on whether or not he will have season-ending surgery could come on Tuesday. He’s been out since June 22nd and was batting .323 before hitting the disabled list. The news on Matsui has been getting progressively dreary as time has worn on and even he has admitted that surgery is a very real possibility. You should already have a contingency plan in place for your outfield in case he does miss the rest of the season, but it will be hard to replace Matsui’s no. 2 outfielder numbers.

KERRY WOOD, Chicago Cubs, RP
Comment: The world is right again as Kerry Wood makes his first trip to the disabled list this season with a blister on his right index finger, the move is retroactive to July 12th. Wood has earned 24 saves in 29 chances with a 3.02 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 55 strikeouts in 44.2 innings in 2008. The transition for Wood from injury-plagued starter to closer has gone smoothly this year with this DL stint serving as the first hiccup for the Cubs. All-Star Carlos Marmol will serve as the interim closer but while Wood is eligible to return on the 27th, we’ve all seen how fragile the former front-line starter can be. Keep Wood reserved for now, but track this situation very closely.

BUST

ERIK BEDARD, Seattle Mariners, SP
Comment: Bedard will not get on a mound until August at the earliest due to tightness in his left shoulder and it may officially be time for fantasy owners to cut ties with the Canadian left-hander. Bedard has had decent but sub-par (for his talent) numbers this year with a 6-4 record, 3.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 72 whiffs in 81 innings. Heading into 2008, Bedard appeared poised for a huge season with the Mariners but his time in Seattle has been hard to stomach thanks to his fragility and ineffective play. It seemed as though his value may have surged upward with a possible trade to a contender, but no one is going to try that hard to acquire him now if he cannot get on the mound. If you are in a shallow league or are simply not sure if you can afford to hold onto him without losing ground in other areas, it is time to cut Bedard loose.

PHILIP HUMBER, Minnesota Twins, SP
Comment: While the Mets gave up a legit everyday outfielder in Carlos Gomez and a potential ace-in-the-making in Deolis Guerra in the Johan Santana trade, Philip Humber is not going to make New York think twice about the move anytime soon. Humber has been incredibly disappointing in Triple-A this season for Minnesota, pitching to a 4-7 record with a 5.89 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 55 strikeouts in 81 innings. Had he put together an impressive minor-league showing, Humber may have gotten a call to the big-leagues by now. But with the pounding he’s been getting this season, don’t expect to see Humber up with the Twins anytime soon.

AARON LAFFEY, Cleveland Indians, SP
Comment: When Aaron Laffey started his 2008 season off with a 1.59 ERA in his first 6 starts, many folks thought that Cliff Lee 2.0 had arrived. Not so fast. Since the start of June, Laffey has gone 2-3 with a 5.22 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and just 21 strikeouts in 50 innings. He lasted just 3.2 innings against a horrid Seattle offense on Friday. He’s clearly shown that he cannot be relied upon in fantasy leagues and since the Indians are not going to do much for him in terms of run support, Laffey is not someone that should be owned at all right now.

ADAM LOEWEN, Baltimore Orioles, SP

Comment: Loewen effectively ended his career as a starting pitcher over the weekend thanks to a stress fracture in his right elbow. He’s had the same injury three times over the past two seasons and because the rehabilitation would be lengthy and come with no guarantees, Loewen has opted to focus on coming back to the Orioles as an outfielder. Baltimore is nobly standing by Loewen’s quest to return as a hitter, but it is tough to imagine him resurrecting his career in a similar fashion to Rick Ankiel. Loewen can be ignored in all leagues for the rest of the season and probably for 2009 as his return from the injury, coupled with the transition from pitching-to-hitting, figures to be a long road for him.

Comments

3 Responses to “Stock Watch”

  1. Curious Jorge on July 21st, 2008 12:03 pm

    You know who is on fire is Cantu….had a walkoff single on Sunday…

  2. Starbonell on July 21st, 2008 12:15 pm

    Yeah everyone keeps waiting for Cantu to fizzle out and Dallas McPherson to get the call, but he just is not giving them any reason to make the move. Teams are going to inquire about Mike Jacobs, so maybe the Fish can move Jacobs for a piece they need (bullpen help anyone?), bring up McPherson and move Cantu to first.

  3. Miami Sound Machine on July 21st, 2008 1:12 pm

    Break up the Marlins?!?! Uh, that’s actually happened too many times before…

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